By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti
Preamble
The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) continued to monitor the conditions of the rangelands, livestock and wildlife in the aftermath of the 2022-2023 drought and through the El Nino rains extending from October through May 2024. The following report gives a summary of the trends and an outlook assessment for the coming dry season.
Preamble
The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) continued to monitor the conditions of the rangelands, livestock and wildlife in the aftermath of the 2022-2023 drought and through the El Nino rains extending from October through May 2024. The following report gives a summary of the trends and an outlook assessment for the coming dry season.
The present crop of calves marks the start of cattle recovery after a 40 percent loss of cattle in the 2022-2023 drought.
The outlook after the long rains
The exceptionally heavy and prolonged El Niño rains were fortuitous and timely in boosting the slow post-drought recovery of pastures, the body condition of wildlife and livestock, and milk production. The outlook through the coming dry season is favorable for further recovery due to the low grazing pressure on the pastures. The boost to livestock and wildlife recovery should be taken as an opportunity to avoid the recurrent droughts, heavy wildlife and livestock mortalities, and huge economic losses incurred due to prolonged loss of milk yields and suppressed market prices for livestock sales.
The long-term ACP monitoring shows the causes of the growing intensity and frequency of droughts to be persistence grazing pressure due to permanent settlement and lack of pasture rotation (Western et al., 2015; Western & Mose, 2021). Lessons learned from the 2022-2023 drought indicate that most herders see the prevention of future livestock and economic losses to be better grazing management though pasture rotation, grass banking, supplementary feeding of animals at homesteads, and early warning systems allowing herders to sell livestock at favorable prices before drought losses (Kimiti et al., 2023).
The biggest threat to the future of the Amboseli pastoral lands and wildlife is subdivision leading to the loss of the open rangelands and the inability of herds to follow seasonal pastures. The Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan 2020-2030 (AEMP), as well as subdivision plans for Ololarashi-Ogulului and Mbirikani, fully recognize the threat of unregulated subdivision and the need to sustain the open rangelands for livestock and wildlife alike.
The Rangelands Division of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) provides a means and opportunity to incorporate the lessons learned from recurrent droughts into the land use plans, rotational pasture plans, and better livestock production and marketing management systems.
ACP will work closely with AET and partners to provide the information and devise strategies to sustain the open rangelands through AEMP.
References
Kimiti, S., Western, D., Mose, V. N., Kasaine, P., Kimiti, S., & Lekanaiya, S. (2023). Post-Drought Perceptions of Herders on Livestock Production in the Amboseli Ecosystem: Impacts, Coping Strategies, and Future Sustainability. www.amboseliconservation.org
Western, D., & Mose, V. N. (2021). The changing role of natural and human agencies shaping the ecology of an African savanna ecosystem. Ecosphere, 12(6), e03536.
Western, D., Mose, V. N., Worden, J., & Maitumo, D. (2015). Predicting extreme droughts in savannah Africa: A comparison of proxy and direct measures in detecting biomass fluctuations, trends and their causes. PLoS ONE, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136516
The exceptionally heavy and prolonged El Niño rains were fortuitous and timely in boosting the slow post-drought recovery of pastures, the body condition of wildlife and livestock, and milk production. The outlook through the coming dry season is favorable for further recovery due to the low grazing pressure on the pastures. The boost to livestock and wildlife recovery should be taken as an opportunity to avoid the recurrent droughts, heavy wildlife and livestock mortalities, and huge economic losses incurred due to prolonged loss of milk yields and suppressed market prices for livestock sales.
The long-term ACP monitoring shows the causes of the growing intensity and frequency of droughts to be persistence grazing pressure due to permanent settlement and lack of pasture rotation (Western et al., 2015; Western & Mose, 2021). Lessons learned from the 2022-2023 drought indicate that most herders see the prevention of future livestock and economic losses to be better grazing management though pasture rotation, grass banking, supplementary feeding of animals at homesteads, and early warning systems allowing herders to sell livestock at favorable prices before drought losses (Kimiti et al., 2023).
The biggest threat to the future of the Amboseli pastoral lands and wildlife is subdivision leading to the loss of the open rangelands and the inability of herds to follow seasonal pastures. The Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan 2020-2030 (AEMP), as well as subdivision plans for Ololarashi-Ogulului and Mbirikani, fully recognize the threat of unregulated subdivision and the need to sustain the open rangelands for livestock and wildlife alike.
The Rangelands Division of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) provides a means and opportunity to incorporate the lessons learned from recurrent droughts into the land use plans, rotational pasture plans, and better livestock production and marketing management systems.
ACP will work closely with AET and partners to provide the information and devise strategies to sustain the open rangelands through AEMP.
References
Kimiti, S., Western, D., Mose, V. N., Kasaine, P., Kimiti, S., & Lekanaiya, S. (2023). Post-Drought Perceptions of Herders on Livestock Production in the Amboseli Ecosystem: Impacts, Coping Strategies, and Future Sustainability. www.amboseliconservation.org
Western, D., & Mose, V. N. (2021). The changing role of natural and human agencies shaping the ecology of an African savanna ecosystem. Ecosphere, 12(6), e03536.
Western, D., Mose, V. N., Worden, J., & Maitumo, D. (2015). Predicting extreme droughts in savannah Africa: A comparison of proxy and direct measures in detecting biomass fluctuations, trends and their causes. PLoS ONE, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136516
Download full PDF report below.
| amboseli_outlook_report_v2.no.2._2024.pdf |
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