By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muruiki
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This report is an update on our drought outlook bulletin of December after brief and localized rains fell in recent weeks. We use our standard measures of the state of pastures, livestock and wildlife to capture the current conditions and the outlook for the remainder of the dry season.
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This report is an update on our drought outlook bulletin of December after brief and localized rains fell in recent weeks. We use our standard measures of the state of pastures, livestock and wildlife to capture the current conditions and the outlook for the remainder of the dry season.
Figure 1: NDVI (greenness) maps from satellite imagery showing recovery from the extreme 2022 drought is weak compared to 2009, reflecting both poor rains and continued very heavy stocking rates. Herders moved their herds to the scattered rains in the Chyulus Hills and base of Kilimanjaro in search of fresh pastures in December, temporarily suspending the need for expensive supplementary feeding.
Figure 2: Despite slight improvements in livestock body conditions in early 2023, milk yields remain at zero. Body condition will likely fall with the extended drought and milk production won’t recover for several more months until new calves are born.
Figure 3: Scattered rains drew livestock out of Amboseli in December and early January just enough to produce some regrowth in the swamps used extensively during the drought. There have been no new wildlife deaths as a result, apart from a few sick animals. The regrowth will see wildlife survive with few losses in the next few weeks. But with the pasture barometer remaining in the hard times, wildlife deaths will resume if the long rains are delayed. Note that Amboseli would have faced a severe drought as early as 2017 had it not been for heavy rains in 2018 and 2020, similar to the heavy rains which delayed droughts in 1998 and 2001.
Figure 4: Livestock market prices in Amboseli. Prices fell throughout the 2022 drought. The last three months saw a slight increase in prices as herders sold better quality stock to pay for the school fees in the new academic year.
Figure 5: Grazing pressure gauge comparisons of the 2022 and 2009 droughts. Early 2022 started with favorable pasture conditions but an influx of 150,000 cattle into the Amboseli ecosystem rapidly depleted fodder creating a drought comparable to 2009 by August when wildlife began dying of starvation. The weak rains and continued heavy grazing pressure in January 2023 compared to the strong recovery in 2009 means the drought will continue in the coming months and see livestock condition fall once more.
Figure 6: An aerial view of Longinye Swamp behind Ol Tukai Lodge showing the extensive flooding in the swamps which helped carry wildlife through the drought with far few deaths than in 2009 when the swamp contracted during the drought.
Outlook in the coming weeks
We conclude that drought conditions will continue and intensify in Amboseli, across much of southern Kenya and into northern Tanzania in the coming weeks. With the few pockets of greenery in the Chyulus and slopes of Kilimanjaro nearly depleted, livestock conditions will decline sharply and supplementary feeding is likely to resume even as market prices for animals fall and hay and other feed prices rise. Wildlife deaths should remain low for the next few weeks, but calving could be set back months due to the emaciation condition of females during the drought.
Reflections of a community researcher at ACP
Sakimba Kimiti
Working with the Amboseli Conservation Program I have gained important skills in understanding the importance of regular monitoring of the various aspects of the rangelands critical to the survival of people, livestock, wildlife and the environment. I have learnt about and developed social and ecological tools for monitoring the health of the rangelands and impact on families.
Working with the Amboseli Conservation Program I have gained important skills in understanding the importance of regular monitoring of the various aspects of the rangelands critical to the survival of people, livestock, wildlife and the environment. I have learnt about and developed social and ecological tools for monitoring the health of the rangelands and impact on families.
More recently, I’ve learned how to report on the 2022 drought using graphics and pictorial images to reach the majority of the online community. The images are an efficient way to reach a wide audience and youths especially, but also decision and policy makers too. A one-stop platform using open-source and interactive tools boost up-take, decision-making and feedback.
Stakeholders within rangelands have come to acknowledge that rangeland management is complex, influence as it is by physical, social, cultural and economic factors on a large scale operating over decades. A combination of scientific approaches and local knowledge helps us assess and monitor the health of the Amboseli ecosystem for people and wildlife. I am completing my PhD exams at present and, once done, will produce a fuller assessment of the drought from a community perspective.
Stakeholders within rangelands have come to acknowledge that rangeland management is complex, influence as it is by physical, social, cultural and economic factors on a large scale operating over decades. A combination of scientific approaches and local knowledge helps us assess and monitor the health of the Amboseli ecosystem for people and wildlife. I am completing my PhD exams at present and, once done, will produce a fuller assessment of the drought from a community perspective.
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