By David Western and Victor N. Mose
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Preamble
​The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has conducted regular aerial counts of the Amboseli ecosystem and eastern Kajiado since 1973. The counts give a 50-year record of wildlife and livestock numbers in response to droughts and human settlement (Western and Mose 2021). ACP has commissioned the Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS) to conduct similar counts since 2011. The two sets of counts have given very similar results over the period of overlap. ACP commissioned DRSRS to conduct an aerial count of eastern Kajiado to assess the impact of the 2022-2023 drought by comparing current figures with the pre-drought count of February 2022. DRSRS used ACP counting protocols (Jolly 1969, Western 1976) to ensure compatibility with earlier counts.
 
We had intended the count to be flown in April-May at the height of the long rains to ensure maximum visibility of animals against the greenery. A three-month delay in aircraft availability put the count off until August 29th to September 1st. The delay resulted in the count being conducted during a severe dry spell when the visibility of animals from the air falls relative to wet seasons. As a result we expect the counts to underestimate the numbers of smaller species in more scattered herds and animals blending into the background.
 
In the event the delay was fortuitous, despite the poorer counting conditions. During the long rains in April-May an east-west rainfall gradient saw pastures green up well to the west and south of Amboseli and recovery little to the east on Kuku and Rombo. The scattered rains drew large numbers of wildebeest and zebra across the border into Tanzania beyond the counting area. Had the count been conducted in May, few wildebeest would  have been counted in the Amboseli ecosystem. The low numbers would have greatly exaggerated drought losses, By the end of August, a survey flight we conducted showed most but not all wildebeest and zebra to have returned to Amboseli.

By David Western
 
During the Maasai cultural festival week of August 21st President Ruto announced that Amboseli National Park would be handed back to the management of the Kajiado County. The announcement was greeted with jubilation by Maasai leaders. The governor of Kajiado, Joseph Ole Lenku, welcomed the presidential directive, saying it corrected the historical injustice of Amboseli Game Reserve being seized from the county by presidential decree in 1974. Conservationist were caught unaware and many strongly oppose the declaration as a regressive move threatening the future of Amboseli’s world famous elephants and wildlife.

Having played a central role in the conservation of Amboseli since the 1960s, I have been asked from many quarters to comment on the handing back of Amboseli National Park to the Kajiado County and Maasai community. Let me start at the beginning to show why I support the move, and the conditions needed to ensure the future of Amboseli not only as a national park, but an ecosystem ten times the size of the park.
 
The first colonial administrators of the East African Protectorate fully recognized the pastoral communities in northern and southern Kenya as having conserved the richest wildlife lands on earth. Following the prohibition on sport hunting in both areas, a 10,696 square mile Southern Reserve was set aside in 1906 to protect wildlife in what would later become Kajiado District. Wildlife continued to thrive in the Southern Reserve under traditional Maasai land and husbandry management. Concerned over destruction of wildlife by colonial farmers and ranchers, the administration carved out Nairobi National Park from Maasailand in 1946, followed shortly after by Tsavo, Aberdare and Mt Kenya National Parks.
 
Efforts by the newly established autonomous Kenya National Parks authority to create national parks in Amboseli and Maasai Mara, the two richest wildlife areas in southern Kenya, were thwarted by Maasai resistance. Instead, a 1,269 square mile Amboseli National Reserve was established around Amboseli in 1948, administered by the Kenya National Park Trustees on behalf of the Kajiado County Council. In 1961 the national reserve was handed over to the Kajiado County Council to manage as the Amboseli Game Reserve. The Kajiado Council set aside a 30 square mile livestock free area around the Ol Tukai swamps to protect wildlife and foster tourism.
 
When I began my research in Amboseli in 1967, the warden Daniel Sindiyo, a Maasai himself, was seconded from the Game Department to administer the game reserve on behalf of the Kajiado County Council. We both
recognized the unique role the Maasai had played in conserving the wealth of wildlife in Amboseli and across southern Kenya. My research showed the pastoral way of life and the parallel seasonal migrations of livestock and wildlife across the 4,000 square kilometer ecosystem explained the wealth of Amboseli’s wildlife and its coexistence with the Maasai community.
 
By then pressures were mounting to create a national park around the Amboseli swamps, a move which would alienate the Maasai, deprive them of late season grazing and sever the wildlife migrations. We proposed instead an Amboseli Maasai Park which would ensure local participation in the benefits of wildlife and protect the integrity of the ecosystem.
 
Despite initially being accepted by the Kajiado County Council, the Maasai Park was ultimately rejected due to opposition politicians fueling suspicions of a government takeover. The Game Department pulled out and the county failed to invest in the conservation and management of Amboseli, leading to a rundown reserve, mounting conservation concerns and, in July 1974, President Jomo Kenyatta declaring Amboseli a National Park.
 
The Maasai considered the declaration illegal and showed their anger by spearing scores of elephants, lions and other wildlife. A compromise was reached after government was persuaded to cede the land and lodge revenues at Ol Tukai to the Kajiado County, pay the Maasai community a fee for supporting the wildlife migrations, and agreeing to future lodges being on community land to prevent overcrowding the park and earning the community direct tourism revenues.
 
Community-based conservation and an ecosystem approach to conserving wildlife was pioneered in Amboseli and adopted as national policy in 1977. In 2004 community leaders convened a meeting of conservation organizations, the Kenya Wildlife Service and county representatives to develop a ten-year ecosystem management plan. The plan, followed by an enlarged 2020-2030 plan, has seen wildlife numbers increase due to the deployment of some seven hundred community scouts, tourism enterprises, conservancies and the oversight of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust constituted by the landowners and partners.
 
Having played a strong role in Amboseli’s community and ecosystem approach to wildlife conservation and promoted similar approaches nationally and internationally, I fully support the return of Amboseli to its traditional custodians. It does correct a historical injustice and vested wildlife in the community which has conserved it down the ages.
 
I do, however, caution the need to correct the injustice of Amboseli’s seizure through legal channels, not by presidential decree--as important as this is in setting the ball rolling. I took a similar position when President Kibaki decreed Amboseli be handed back to the Kajiado County Council in 2005. The decree led to an outcry, not only among conservationists, but also a Suswa Declaration by Maasai leaders rejecting the illegal declaration as an effort to buy Maasai votes. The Kibaki decree was halted by a court injunction, leading to angry tussles between government and Maasai leaders ever since. 
 
The gazetting and degazetting of a national park must be done through the legal provisions of the Wildlife Act and the approval by the National Assembly. Amboseli could otherwise be taken back from the Maasai by a future presidential decree. The return to the Maasai should also be seen as the correction of an historical injustice, not an election gift. Other counties will otherwise press for a similar gift of national parks, and already are.
 
The handing back of Amboseli to the Maasai comes at a critical juncture. Frustrations are mounting among community members over rising conflict with wildlife and paltry revenues from the park. The frustrations, lack of returns from wildlife and the ongoing subdivision of the surrounding group ranches pose a grave threat to the future of the national park, migrations and ecosystem.
 
Under Maasai custodianship, Amboseli’s wildlife must find an enduring place in their future as it has in the past. The Kajiado County must also show it can manage Amboseli to the standards KWS has set. The county inherits a well-run park with regulations which have curbed the uncontrolled tourism crush harrying predators in many national reserves and sullying Kenya’s reputation as a premier wildlife destination.
 
The resumption of Amboseli management by the Kajiado County also offers an opportunity to secure the future of the ecosystem in the face of subdivision. With the County Assembly prepared to share a significant portion of the park revenues with the community, the payment for their ecological services could secure the ecosystem needed for wildlife migrations and the future of livestock herders. Conservation trust funds being set up by government and conservation organizations, along with payments for carbon and biodiversity credits and nature enterprises, could provide additional income to the Maasai community to keep their rangelands open.
 
With these caveats and the potential to secure the future of the entire ecosystem, I see a promising future for Amboseli National Park vested in the Maasai community.  The government must and has given assurances that it will take bold steps to reform existing punitive wildlife policies to ensure our national parks are embedded within the ecosystems on which they depend, and embrace community engagement.  The Parks Beyond Parks movement which I launched at KWS in 1997 has seen conservancies flourish and cover more land than all national parks and reserves combined. The combination of such community conservation efforts and national parks is a winning combination which augers well for conserving Kenya’s wealth of wildlife.

Introduction
Rangeland ecosystems face enormous biophysical, sociocultural and economic changes at an unprecedented rate. Frequent droughts are disrupting the lives of herders, leaving them destitute and unable to cope with the changing times. The Amboseli ecosystem illustrates the many changes affecting herders and their livelihoods. The hardships call for monitoring and identifying the losses, coping mechanisms and best practices in order to build drought resilience.

We have conducted a comprehensive survey to detail the perceived causes, impacts, and responses to the 2022-2023 drought relative to earlier droughts. A well-informed management strategy depends on a clear understanding of the pastoral production systems and coping strategies. The survey by the Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) was conducted by Sakimba Kimiti and the ACC Resource Assessors (RAs) across the Amboseli ecosystem. The survey was designed to assess livestock losses, social disruption, management strategies, best practices, and pointers to the future sustainability of open rangelands.

The survey findings give valuable pointers to stakeholders in Amboseli to better ecosystem planning and management, and ways to improve drought resilience in the pastoral lands.
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Download full report included in the second issue of the Amboseli Conservation Bulletin below

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samson Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki

Introduction

This ACP report is one of our regular series tracking the conditions of the rangelands, pastoral economy and wildlife in Amboseli. We also give pasture conditions across the southern region from Narok to Taita-Taveta which may dictate cattle movements across the region this dry season. 
Our report shows that pasture and livestock conditions have not recovered sufficiently with the long rains to avert harsh conditions until the short rains late in the year. 

Download full report below.

​By David Western and Victor Mose
 
Two seemingly opposing views speak to the ecological role of elephants in Africa. One holds that elephants destroy woodlands and reduce biodiversity, the other that elephants play a keystone role in creating the richness of Africa’s forests and savannas. Each view has swayed wildlife conservation policies and practices one way or another. In southern Africa elephants have regularly been culled in parks to protect woodlands and prevent a loss of biodiversity. In East Africa a hands-off policy allows ecological changes to play out with little management, regardless of the biodiversity outcome.

Evidence from over two hundred studies across Africa shows high densities of elephants constricted to parks do destroy woodlands, threaten species such as the endangered black rhino and can greatly reduce biodiversity, the very objective of modern conservation policies. Yet other studies show just how important elephants are in seed dispersal and habitat diversification in African tropical forests and savannas.
 
Our Amboseli studies uphold both views. On the one hand we show elephants compressed into Amboseli National Park have destroyed the fever tree woodland and greatly reduced plant and animal diversity and resilience to droughts. On the other, our survey of the Congo Basin shows elephants to be an architect of the tropical forests. The forests are richest in wildlife where elephants move freely and fall silent when elephants are poached out.

If both views are correct, are there conditions which favor the ecologically constructive rather than damaging role of elephants?  
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In our paper titled, Cascading effects of elephant-human interactions and the role of space and mobility in sustaining biodiversity published in the journal Ecosphere in May 2023, we come to a surprising conclusion: creating separate places for elephants and people is seldom the answer. People and elephants play complementary roles in creating and sustaining the diversity of African forests and savannas. 

​Disentangling and reconstructing the ecological roles of elephants and people is like pulling apart the threads of a tapestry to better see its harmony. Most elephant studies have been conducted in parks long after they were created, missing altogether the entangled and coevolved roles people and elephants have played in shaping Africa’s landscapes over millennia before the advent of colonialism and exponential human growth of the last century
 
Our half century of study in Amboseli gave us a unique insight into how the ecological forces of people and elephants in Amboseli shaped the savannas from a time when Maasai pastoralists and wildlife interacted freely across the landscape, to the creation of a national park in the 1970s. Tracking the changes through the ensuing decades has given us a unique window onto how the breakdown in elephant movements due to  poaching and compression into the national park has reduced biological diversity. Followed yet longer, we tracked the subsequent recovery of elephant numbers and movements in response to local communities taking up their own conservation initiatives.
 
What we found is that elephants compressed into the national park by poaching turned woodlands to grassland and shrublands, created short grazing lawns in the swamps, and sharply reduced plant and herbivore diversity. This scenario replays the story of elephants in protected areas across Africa. And yet, where elephants abandoned their range beyond the park, the invasion of dense bushlands also resulted in a loss of biodiversity which echoes the story of the forests falling silent.

These two scenarios came as no surprise to us. The big surprise came in finding habitat diversity and plant species to peak at the park boundary where elephants and people overlapped and move around each other. Their interaction set up a creative tension in which elephants removed trees and created grassy patches, and livestock suppressed grazing and created woodland regrowth, a finding we confirmed with a variety of controlled experiments.

Though not directed at the ecological outcome of human-wildlife interactions, other studies have found elephants and people to coexist at relatively low population levels. Similar conclusions are found in other studies showing how human-elephant coevolution has shaped the ecological, behavioral and cultural adaptations in elephants and people.
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The Amboseli study underlines how important space and mobility is in expressing the keystone role of elephants and people coexisting at landscape scale. Space and mobility not only alleviate the ecological disruption of compressed populations but also minimizes the need for population management.
 
We recognize that space and mobility are dwindling fast. Poaching, settlements, farms and fenced ranches have already reduced elephants to a sixth of their potential range in Africa. How then, can we possibly win back more space for elephants, restore their ecological role and minimize conflict with people?
 
Winning space calls for reversing a century of policies creating separate places for people and wildlife. We must reach beyond parks and to find sufficient space sustain viable elephant populations and biodiversity--on conditions that benefit rather than burden landowners. Can this be done? Yes. Examples include cross-border linkages between Kruger National Park in South Africa and Mozambique, the greater Amboseli ecosystem lying spanning the Kenya-Tanzania border, and the Yellowstone-to-Yukon landscape across the U.S. border creating space for grizzlies, wolves and bison. These new conservation landscapes are recreating the ecological role of large herbivores and carnivores in our human-dominated world.
 

We are pleased to share our paper just released in Ecosphere. Our study tracks six decades of change in the number and distribution of elephants to document their ecological impact in response to poaching, the creation of a national park and human settlement across the Amboseli ecosystem.

​We show that elephants and people, the two keystone species in the savannas, create habitat and species diversity if free to move across the landscape.  The study shows the importance of space, mobility and community engagement in ensuring the vital ecological role elephants play, and in minimizing the need for population and habitat management.

Download the paper below.

Dr. David Western, known as Jonah, has spent 55 years conserving the African savannas. At the Dickinson Family Education Conservatory on April 27th at 6:00 pm, he will discuss how changing views of nature are transforming conservation in our human-dominated age. Attendees can expect valuable insights from this renowned expert.
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For more information click here.

ACP commissioned Sakimba Kimiti to conduct a questionnaire survey in collaboration with the resource assessors to gather herders’ views of the intensity of the 2022 drought and their strategic responses compared to the 2009 drought. The current drought is still ongoing and will be monitored until the rains begin, and beyond, to look into how herders manage the recovery phase.  The first edition of the Amboseli Conservation Bulletin for 2023 is intended to inform the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Southern Rangelands Coalition and Kajiado County about how herders are adapting to recurrent droughts and suggest successful strategies which can be scaled up to avoid future large-scale losses of livestock and rangeland degradation.

The first edition of the Amboseli Conservation Bulletin for 2023 is available for download below.

Herders and wildlife face an extended severe drought in Amboseli after poor short rains

David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki
 
Situation report
 
Herders in the Amboseli ecosystem face an extended drought after the poor short rains in November brought a short respite. Most families moved their herds to Chyulu Hills and Ukambani to take advantage of the localized rains. Some herders moved as far as 150 kilometers to Mutha and areas north of Tsavo East National Park. The migrations saw a slight improvement in cattle body condition and market prices.

However, the large concentrations of animals from as far off as the Rift Valley and Narok quickly used up the localized pastures. Coupled with the cost of leasing grazing rights in Ukambani and watering their animals, most herders soon moved their cattle back to Amboseli to graze in the permanent swamps. In our February aerial count, we recorded 10,000 livestock in Amboseli National Park. Were it not for Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) granting herders access to swamp grazing under supervision, thousands of cattle would have died.

The situation for wildlife is somewhat better than livestock. The scattered short rains around Amboseli in November temporarily drew zebra, wildebeest and elephants out of the park. Coupled with the outward migration of livestock, the swamps sedges recovered sufficiently to improve wildlife body condition and prevent further deaths.  

Outlook in the coming weeks

We are resuming the red alert for the current drought after the brief improvement to amber in December. This means the red alert conditions will continue far longer than in 2009 drought when heavy livestock and wildlife deaths and good short rains in November produced a flush of good pasture which ended the drought.
Given the grave outlook for livestock, herders should sell whatever animals they can and focus on their prime animals to avoid starvation and see them through to the long rains. The school feeding programs supported by NGOs in the Amboseli area should be resumed and expanded to ensure children stay in school and relieve the hardship on their families.

The outlook for wildlife is less dire, given the slight recovery in swamp grazing and in body condition. The mortality of zebra and wildebeest will likely remain low, provided the long rains arrive late March or early April. If, however, the livestock influx grows and moves from the peripheral swamps to the central portions used by wildlife, the outlook for wildlife will rapidly worsen too. KWS should ensure livestock use only the peripheral swamps to spare the central areas for wildlife and minimize conflicts.

The prolonged heavy grazing and resulting heavily degraded pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem since sedentarization began in the 1990s has severely reduced grassland productivity. Periods of severe pasture shortage have increased (Figure 4) and livestock productivity has declined (Figure 2). The outlook will worsen with the subdivision unless provisions are made to keep large areas open for livestock and wildlife grazing.

We suggest that once the rains resume, the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust on behalf of the landowners, KWS and conservation organizations take stock of the lessons learned from the current drought, restore pasture health and avoid losses to livestock and wildlife.  

Download the full Amboseli Ecosystem Outlook Report below.

Many herders and crop farmers, based on my observations in Eselengei group ranch, have never experienced such a severe drought. To supplement the lack of grass, livestock are given commercial feeds and hay. A sack of flour meal costs between Ksh. 1600/= and Ksh. 3000/=, depending on quality. Following some rain, herds migrated to Magadi, Narok, Machakos, Kiboko, and our neighboring country, Tanzania; they are almost all returning to their permanent homesteads to feed the remaining livestock with commercial feeds.

Very few herds have lactating cows, and those that do, don’t sell their milk; instead, it is used for household purposes. Older calves are separated from their mothers as the drought bites on. The current livestock body condition ranges from 1-4 on a scale of 1-9, with 9 being the best. A mature animal cost around Ksh. 30,000, while sheep and goats’ cost Ksh. 4,000.
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Many children have not attended school because their parents rely on rainfall to cultivate subsistence crops. Those in school are the children of parents who rely on irrigation and formal employment. Herders in Eselengei estimate that they have lost 70% of their livestock.

The entire Amboseli ecosystem is experiencing a severe drought, which has resulted in the deaths of livestock and wildlife. As a result, pastoralists have been forced to migrate all over the region, some as far as Narok and the coastal lowlands.

Livestock are starving, prompting herders to look for areas where it has recently rained, such as the Chyulu Hills, Ukambani and Kibwezi. The cost of purchasing livestock feed and grass has been a financial burden for many people. Herders in Kimana who once had over 200 cows now have less than 80.
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The dairy production from cattle has also been severely impacted, with a lack of pastures causing a decline in the livestock's body condition. The market prices for livestock have decreased due to their condition and falling demand. The herders are struggling to pay for their children's education. Some parents have been forced to withdraw their children from school due to a lack of fees.

The current drought has resulted in livestock deaths and desperation among herders in Mbirikani. Irrigation water sources are rapidly depleting in areas such as the Chyulu hills. Overgrazing by large herds of cattle from the ranches of Matapato, Eselenkei, and Olgulului has depleted the available pastures in the Chyulu hills. These herds have now moved into Tsavo National Park and the Isinet swamp near Kimana Sanctuary, resulting in a high concentration of cattle in these two locations.
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The migration of wild animals, particularly elephants, to these areas has resulted in a conflict over limited resources between the animals, livestock, and humans. Crops in the Isinet, Kimana, and Kalesirua areas have been raided. Market prices for bulls range from Ksh. 30,000 to 50,000, and young calves and other cattle range from Ksh. 20,000 to 35,000, as a result of the influx of livestock. If no rain falls, prices are expected to fall further in February and worsen by March.

The pastoralists have had a difficult time. There hasn't been any rain in three years. Only light showers have fallen during the months when rain is traditionally expected. As a result, there are few or no grasses in all areas. Reports from the OOGR indicate that some herders have lost close to 75% of their livestock. Wildlife has not been spared either. Many zebras, gazelles, giraffes, wildebeests, and even elephants have died as a result of the drought.

Since vegetation has disappeared and almost all grasslands now remain bare grounds, herders are buying crushed cones locally known as pumba, in addition to hay, and cone plants from farms under irrigation to feed our livestock. With all these efforts livestock are still dying. A double loss!

Following the light rain showers, herders have taken their livestock to the Chyulu hills, Oltepesi, Enkii, Oloile, Lemong'o, Olng'arua Loosinet, and Ngoirienito. The livestock body condition scores remain below average.  Their prices continue to drop as children get back to school. The drought has also led to malnutrition in children as milk yields dry up.