By Florence Gichoya
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Degradation, subdivision and skyrocketing demand for land is threatening Kenya’s rangelands. This was raised during a two-day Rangelands Communities Exchange Conference held in Nairobi convened by the Rangelands Association of Kenya in collaboration with African Conservation Centre and International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
 “Mobility is the basis of productivity in Kenya’s rangelands where livestock and wildlife coexist. You can’t have a herd without grassland” Chairman African Conservation Centre, David Western said. “Grassland in Amboseli has degraded so much that today, there is 30 percent less grass produced for the same amount of rainfall than it was in the 1960s. In northern Kenya the amount of pasture produced today is 40 to 50 percent less than that produced five decades ago for the same amount of rainfall” He continued.   Download full article here.

By David Western, David Maitumo and Victor Mose
 
2017 saw a continuing recovery of Amboseli wildlife numbers after the precipitous losses in 2008, as shown in Figure 1.  The slow recovery of zebra and wildebeest, held in check by predation until 2012, began to accelerate through to 2017 once the herds resumed their strong seasonal migrations. Zebra and wildebeest numbers tracked each other closely throughout the recovery. The downturn in the 2017 dry season may reflect fewer animals returning to the basin rather than a decline in population. Buffalo numbers remained low until 2015 when the herds began migrating with the rains to avoid heavy predation pressure and now stand at three quarters of their pre-drought levels.

Elephant numbers which peaked at around 550 in the Amboseli Basin in the late 1980s following a concentration in the park following the heavy poaching of the 1970s, declined steadily to a low of 300 at the beginning of the 2009 drought. After the loss of over 400 animals, the elephant numbers returned to a high of over 550, then fell strongly to an all-time low of a little over 200 with the resumption of drought in 2017 when little forage remained in the swamps.

Sheep and goat numbers climbed to 179,000 by November 2017 when ACP commissioned a count of the Amboseli ecosystem, considerably down from a peak of 341,000 in 2016.  Cattle numbers are also down after peaking in 2016, from 127,000 to 55,000. ACP uses many indicators to track and anticipate severe conditions. In addition to the numbers of wildlife and livestock, other measures include pasture abundance, the body condition and milk yields of cattle (Figure 2) and market prices (Figure 3) which slump in times of drought.
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Taken collectively the data show the build-up of wildlife numbers and recovery of livestock condition after the 2009 drought and point to a repeat severe drought setting in late 2016 and early 2017. The declining conditions are reflected in livestock milk yields, body condition and market prices. Result are not yet in from mortality figures but for cattle are likely to be around 40 percent so far.

The 2017 short rains were forecast to be good and widespread but have been desultory and scattered over much of southern Kenya, including Amboseli. Large numbers of zebra and wildebeest carcasses have been counted around the Amboseli swamps. With the paltry rains and failure of grass to recover after years of heavy grazing, the drought conditions are likely to become extremely severe before the long rains of April 2018. 

​By David Western
 
The newly appointed governor is Joseph Ole Lenku, former Cabinet Secretary Defense and highly influential in the Kenyatta government. His tenure sees a virtual clean sweep for Jubilee Party in Kajiado. Hon Lenku is from the Amboseli area and no stranger to the issues there, especially the human-wildlife conflict and suffering of pastoralist in droughts. He came out with a scathing indictment in a two-page piece in the press of wildlife conservationists ignoring the suffering of pastoralists and farmers. The article sent ripples through the NGO sector and KWS. Fortunately, I got to see him shortly after his induction, accompanied by Benson Laiyan, coordinator of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, chairman of the Trust, Daniel Lolteris, a close ally of Lenku’s. Jackson Mwato and Johnson Sipitiek, both ACC community officers.
 
Over the course of an hour I was able to explain to the governor the collaborative efforts in Amboseli and how the community, with its NGO partners and KWS, is addressing the very issues he raised. I also pointed out the underlying causes of the recurring droughts being grazing pressure, and the need to institute land use plans, grazing plans, restoration efforts and livestock development and marketing programs. The governor was persuaded, it seems, especially by the inputs from the Amboseli community. He has agreed to come down and launch the women’s milk cooperative ACC set up and the Nongotiak Resource Centre. He has since taken on Benson Laiyan, Coordinator of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, as his right-hand person on project delivery.  Benson made a start on the governor’s promise of support by bringing down the new county head of Lands and Livestock to an AET meeting last week. The governor’s support holds promise of getting solid attention to the land, grazing management and degradation issues the previous administration had difficulty tackling. He has announced that he will set aside all country holdings as grass banks for supplementary fodder during droughts.

By David Western

Land subdivision and permanent settlement

The biggest threat to the viability of the Amboseli ecosystem and the free-ranging wildlife herds of East African savanna ecosystems in general is land subdivision. I have raised concerns in published articles based on the Amboseli long-term monitoring program showing the impact of subdivision of group ranches on habitat and wildlife (2009’ Western, D Groom, R and Worden, J. The impact of land subdivision and sedentarization of pastoralist on wildlife in an African savanna ecosystem. Biological Conservation 142: 2538-2546; 2013. Groom, R.J. and Western, D. The impact of land subdivision and sedentarization on wildlife in Kenya’s southern Rangelands. Rangeland Ecology and Management 66(1): 1-9).

The threat grew with the clamor for subdivision on the group ranches across the Amboseli ecosystem. Fortunately, the large fallout from the resale of Maasai lands resulting from the subdivision of Kimana Group Ranch led Maasai leaders to call a halt and take stock of other land use options. The halt led to Mbirikani asking ACP and ACC to draw up land use plans for the group ranch. ACC raised the funds from GEF to conduct the land use plan, and Big Life funds from the same sources to conduct a grazing plan. ACC employed rangeland consultants to conduct the plan working closely with ACP. The plan was completed in September and is awaiting ratification from the group ranch committee. ACP contributed most of the background data. ACP also played a lead role in recommendations for the grazing plan, based on traditional seasonal movements and grass banks governed by grazing committees. The grazing plan is in draft stage ready for group ranch review.

In a serendipitous development, the recent Community Land Act halts all further subdivision of group ranches, pending registration of all members, including women. The registration of women will in itself put a break on subdivision. Further, the Act calls for all group ranches to draw up land use plans. This puts the Mbirikani land use and grazing plan ahead of the curve and an example for others to follow. Selengei Group Ranch has also approached ACC to conduct a land use plan of the ranch and the exercise is underway. ACP is providing the background and framework for the planning exercise. With land use and grazing plans underway on Mbirikani and Selengei and Ololorashi Ogului scheduled to follow, most of the Amboseli ecosystem will be under formal land use plans, which will be incorporated into the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan 2018-2018 scheduled for review in 2018.

The county governments are, under the new constitution, mandated to do spatial planning. The 2008-2018 Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan was formally adopted by the Kajiado County and gazetted by the Attorney General’s Chambers. AEMP, the first of its kind, is viewed as a model for other ecosystem development plans and has been adopted by KWS as a framework for wildlife planning around and beyond parks. The new governor of Kajiado has given his backing for the land use planning exercises. He has also announced that the county will zone the district into areas for settlement, agriculture and livestock-wildlife use and prohibit the sale of the mixed-use rangelands. This is excellent news and just the step needed to halt the subdivision of the rangelands.

In a further promising development, the range lands division I have been pushing for AET to establish to oversee the planning and integration of all aspects of livestock and wildlife development was approved by the board of AET in November. I was appointed interim chairperson to give direction and weight to the new division. We held our first meeting on December 7th. The division will encourage and oversee land use plans, grazing management, water plans, livestock improvement schemes, the newly established Women’s Milk Cooperative, marketing, range land restoration and outreach programs for the group ranches under AET. The county and central government range lands officers will set as ex-officio members on the board.

By David Western
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The degradation of pasture documented by the ACP long-term monitoring program is widespread across the Kenya and northern Tanzania rangelands. The Dutch group NAGA funded AET in collaboration with ACC and ACP, to conduct a pilot restoration program on the group ranches using the traditional Maasai olopololi method of grass banks, as reported in the year-end LCAOF report for 2016 and on the ACP website. The pilot program was considered extremely successful and formed the centerpiece of a NAGA submission to the Rabobank in Holland to fund a multi-year restoration program in Kenya, Tanzania and Brazil. I met up with the Rabobank assessment team in September and gave a background to rangelands degradation in Kenya and the steps for restoration. The NAGA group (now called JustDiggit) won the award against a very competitive set of submissions. The group advanced a $70,000 grant ACC and AET in October to set up an interim program and draw up a long-term ecosystem-wide program by March. The JustDiggit team met with AET, ACC, ACP and other NGOs on December 8th to draw up a schedule for completing a detailed restoration plan. The restoration plan will be a multi-year initiative covering the Amboseli ecosystem, south rift and adjoining Tanzania borderlands. The program, to be launched in May 2018, will be overseen by ACC and managed by AET and conservation partners.  
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In another development, the governor of Kajiado, following the details I gave him on the cause and extent of degradation across the county, has announced he will use all the county’s land holdings as grass banks to provide hay during droughts. The Maasai across Kajiado were buying substandard hay at exorbitant prices from Western Kenya over the last three months.
 
The magnitude of pasture degradation is finally being acknowledged as a national disaster underlying cause of dislocation and conflict between neighboring tribes in northern Kenya and the deepening the conflict with wildlife. In 2017 the Kenya government signed onto the AFR 100 Pan-African agreement recognizing the severity of land degradation. It has committed itself to restoring 5.3 million hectares of rangeland. The World Resources Institute (WRI) assisted the government in identifying potential restoration sites and is using the Amboseli program as a template for scaling up nationally. WRI is keen to work with ACC in designing the national program. I gave a talk to WRI in Washington DC in October and suggested the need for a national restoration strategy, modelled on the National Wildlife Conservation Strategy the ACC is coordinating on behalf of the Ministry of Environment. WRI partnered ACC’s preparation of Kenya’s Natural Capital: A Biodiversity Atlas. As a follow up of the October meeting, WRI will fund ACC to draw up a national restoration strategy under the Ministry of the Environment and in collaboration with the Rangeland Association of Kenya.

By David Western
 
The severity of conflict between wildlife and people intensified with scanty short rains in November and December. The conflict was the main topic of discussion at a meeting of the Borderlands Conservation Initiative, held in Nairobi in 1st and 2nd of March. Wardens, county representatives, conservation organizations and researchers reviewed the scale of conflict in Kajiado and Narok counties and mitigation measures. Amboseli was highlighted as the best documented case of the rising conflict as poaching abates and wildlife expands into human habitation. The following excerpts summarize the findings of BCI meeting:
 
Between 2013 and 2016, 40 human deaths and 300 injuries caused by wildlife were reported in Kajiado, along with 1,700 crop raiding incidents. Many incidents go unreported by farmers who feel there is no hope of getting any compensation. Big Life noted that the growing number of human deaths from elephant attacks has caused a spate of retaliatory spearing by young warriors. Only one elephant was lost to poaching in in Amboseli during 2016, compared to 24 to 30 elephants killed in retaliation. Big Life attended 145 crop raiding incidents in Amboseli area last year.
 
The growing overlap of elephants and small-scale farms (shambas) was presented by the Amboseli Conservation Program:
 
Big Life profiled the distribution of conflict incidents for 2016.  Big Life deploys 60 of the 350 Amboseli community scouts in conflict mitigation. Many farms are isolated and difficult to protect. The average damage per person is 0.5 acres and the interception rate on crop-raiding elephants on the order of 60 percent. Retaliatory incidents have risen sharply, posing dangers to scouts and rangers who intercede.
 
The BCI meeting concluded that the growing conflict needed to be tackled locally rather than rely on government compensation, and through land use planning at a county and group ranch level. Amboseli was highlighted as an example of the steps needed to address human-wildlife conflict.
 
A follow-up meeting of the Amboseli Human-Wildlife Conflict Committee set up in December was held at the Kenya Wildlife Service headquarters on the 22nd March. The meeting, convened by the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, included the district police and National Intelligence Service, in addition to KWS, community leaders, conservation organizations and researchers.
 
The meeting reached a consensus on a preliminary draft of rapid-responses protocols for dealing with human deaths and injuries caused by wildlife. Kenya Wildlife Service, as the agency responsible for wildlife, will set up a hotline for reporting incidents. Big Life, which has an area-wide radio network, will send out the alerts via Whats App to assemble the rapid-response group on site. The Amboseli Ecosystem Trust will sound out the communities on the protocols being drawn up by the Amboseli Trust for Elephants, Lion Guardians, Big Life, ACC, KWS and the County Wildlife Compensation Committee Chairman. ACP will set up technical group to compile a human-wildlife conflict database.
 
Other measures to address the conflict are underway. Conservation organizations, Amboseli Ecosystem Trust and KWS have held meetings with warrior and youth groups in the Amboseli region to address the conflict:

• In January ACC gave start-up funds to launch conservation education outreach program in memory of Josh Kirinkol ACC US board member, aimed at engaging the younger generation of Maasai.
• ACC, funded by the Global Environmental Facility, is undertaking land use planning on Mbirikani, Kuku and Rombo group ranches. The land use plans zone each ranch into areas for settlement, farming, commerce, extensive livestock-cum-wildlife, ecotourism and conservancies.
• Big Life has completed 48 kilometers of an electric fence to protect the main farming areas east of Amboseli and along the foot-slopes of Kilimanjaro from elephant raids. The fence is proving highly effecting in keeping elephants out of farms.

By Sakimba Kimiti

In November 2016, Sakimba Kimiti, a research assistant with the Amboseli Conservation Program, defended his master’s titled, Rangeland Resource Dynamics and the Implications for Pastoral Livelihoods in the Amboseli Ecosystem, Kenya. Sakimba was interested in describing the local community knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of the extent of change in rangeland resources in Amboseli. Changes in the ecosystem monitored by ACP over the last few decades include land fragmentation, loss of grazing areas, changes in land tenure, restricted herd mobility due to increase in human settlements, changes in land use, and loss of pasture productivity. How well do local perceptions reflect the changes, and what is missing in the changes measured? Few studies have compared traditional and scientifically monitored information.
 
Sakimba integrated scientific approaches and local knowledge to assess changes in the Amboseli ecosystem over time, the causes of changes and the impact of the changes on pastoralists. He stratified the Amboseli ecosystem into nomadic, semi-nomadic and sedentary land uses under group tenure and private holdings. The four decades of change were divided into a pre-park period (1967-76), pre-settlement (1977-86), post-settlement (1987-2006) and the post-2009 drought.
 
From the resource maps drawn by the community, grazing areas have declined significantly over the period. The decline was more pronounced in the sedentary subdivided lands and the semi-nomadic locations, less so in nomadic locations. Areas of cultivation have also expanded over the period in both sedentary and semi-nomadic land sites. The changes have led to a reduction in household herd size in all the land locations, with the biggest declines in the sedentary land use sites.
 
The results of the study show that pastoralism remains a key livelihood strategy in Amboseli. Monitoring rangeland changes through community perceptions is a vital step in designing sustainable strategies for managing change and in strengthening participatory planning process.
 
Click link for full paper
Community perceptions on spatio-temporal land use changes in the Amboseli ecosystem, southern Kenya

By Victor N. Mose

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) on Wednesday 22nd March 2017 launched an all-digital data collection platform that Resource Assessors (RAs) will use to collect and  transmit both plant and animal data in the Amboseli ecosystem.
The platform, called ODK (Open Data Kit), will help generate the first comprehensive ecosystem wide data set of ground sampling for wildlife, livestock, plants, settlement mapping, market surveys and drought conditions.
ODK is a free and highly customizable open source set of tools which simplifies collecting data in the field and aggregates the information on a remote server. Using the platform, ACP can now upload monitoring data onto a tablet in the field. The tablet also logs GPS location, date and time and takes digital pictures. The data is transmitted through the cloud for instant retrieval, updating and analysis on any database. The ACP database has integrated an analysis tool developed in R that analyses and generates instant results.
The digitization of field data and cloud transmission frees up time for Resource Assessors in the field and data analysts in the office to review the results and communicate the findings to user groups.
“I now wouldn’t need to carry my camera and GPS as the platform incorporates them both.” said an elated Maitumo, a long serving RA for the Amboseli Conservation Program.

By David Western

Predator attacks on livestock continue at a high level, despite the increase in wildlife numbers showing up in the ecological monitoring. This suggests that carnivore stock-killing is becoming habitual when wild prey availability should see attacks falling. The reasons likely stem from the loss of herding skills and knowhow in dealing with predators, resulting in the loss of hundreds of straying animals. Five lions have been speared in the Amboseli area in 2016, the highest in several years. The spearing, reported by Lion Guardians at the Human Wildlife Conflict (HWC) group, point to the anger communities feel about the failure of compensation payments, the slow response to conflict incidents, and warriors building up for an age-set ceremony shortly.
 
Crop depredations by elephants are also at an all-time high. Human deaths due to wildlife attacks have caused several riots in the Amboseli region this year. The same underlying causes of anger over lion depredations are fueling angst over elephant crop raiding, made worse by the loss of human life. Elephants have made ten fatal attacks on people in the Amboseli area this year. The lax responses to the attacks, added to the lack of compensation, has turned a bad situation serious. In one incident a few weeks ago, the body of a victim lay unattended by government officials for three days and was eaten by lions, hyenas and a leopard. The community took up spears in retaliation and KWS was forced to kill an innocent elephant in reprisal. The killing of innocent elephants is making docile elephants skittish and dangerous, according to Cynthia Moss.   
 
As reported at the launch of the Nongotiak centre in March, the anger and frustrations of the community and the governor of Kajiado, Dr. David Nkedianye, boiled up over the elephant and lion attacks and was directed at the new KWS Director General, Katili Mbathi. The meeting gave the DG a window onto the challenges facing KWS as the elephant poaching crisis subsides. The bigger longer-term challenges lie in finding space and a place for wildlife beyond parks--and beyond the conservancies--which have been the focus of KWS attention outside parks in the last few years.
 
A number of developments are underway in Amboseli to address the threats.
 
Big Life has taken a lead in tackling the depredations of elephants on small-scale farms on the slopes of Kilimanjaro and swamps east of Amboseli. Assisted by Space for Giants, Big Life has drawn up a fencing plan to secure the farms from elephant attacks. The 45 kilometer fence should alleviate most of the depredations on the farms south and east of Amboseli, areas elephants rarely used before farmers moved in. Most elephants moved north and west of Amboseli with the rains. These areas remain lightly used and could, with the restoration of seasonal dams, reintroduce elephants to their former range.
 
To address the broader human-wildlife conflict, Lion Guardians, Amboseli Trust for Elephants, Big Life, the International Fund for Animal Welfare, ACC and ACP have set up a HWC mitigation group under the umbrella of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust. The inaugural meeting was held in March, the first fully-constituted meeting on December 7th 2016
 
The December meeting was chaired by Jeremy Goss of Big Life and attended by the warden and KWS Assistant Director, Southern, Daniel Onsembe, Benson Laiyan of AET, Daniel Lolterish, chairman of Ololorashi Ogulului Group Ranch, Jackson Mwato, the Kajiado County Wildlife Compensation Committee chairman, Johnson Sipitiek of ACC, community representative, Cynthia and staff of the Amboseli Elephant Trust, Leela Hadza and staff of Lion Guardians, Craig Miller, head of security for Big Life, and IFAW representatives. The main item on the agenda was the growing elephant and lion conflict.
 
The community members reiterated that the biggest cause of anger and reprisals was the lack of response after an elephant attack on farmers and herders. The warden reported that the only person who can authorize the killing of an elephant, however imminent the threat, is the Director General of KWS. The long delays inevitably mean the elephant has fled the scene even if action is granted. The upshot is that warriors take up spears and kill any elephants in the neighborhood, or KWS ends up killing the wrong elephant to placate the community when authority is granted.
 
Daniel Onsembe, Assistant KWS director, joined in the lengthy discussions about the place of dialogue and enforcement in addressing the conflict. After the last lion killing, the warden got the community to fine the warriors in the traditional manner and no lions have been killed since. The warden referred to the bible in one hand and the gun in the other duality of KWS wardens. The bible has proved more effective than the gun, particularly with the Maasai.
 
Onsembe supported the Warden’s view and said dialogue should be the first KWS response, arrest only when dialogue fails. He noted that KWS doesn’t have the money or manpower to solve the wide-spread conflicts. The best thing going for resolving the conflict is the “Parks Beyond Parks” movement and conservancies, which put wildlife management into the hand of communities and brings in NGOs in as partners. Johnson Sipitiek, chairman of the Narok County Wildlife Compensation Committee, added that KWS and the Ministry have lost credibility because no compensation for human deaths has been paid in two years and the claims now run at $29 million a year.
 
At the conclusion of the meeting, the HWC meeting set up a small group, including ATE, Lion Guardians, Big Life, AET and KWS, to propose rapid response protocols. The Amboseli warden will push the protocols with KWS DG, aimed at devolving HWC responses to approved teams that can act promptly after an attack. ACC will also launch a youth education fund in January, directed largely at young warriors, in memory of one of their most ardent conservation advocates who died recently. AET will set up small groups of warriors on each ranch to join the rapid response group attending victims of attacks.
 
The research and conservation groups agreed on setting up a HWC database with the assistance of ACP. The database will include a deep layer dealing with the long-term and seasonal pressures at the root of conflict—the supply side information--and a top layer dealing with the rapid response information, the demand side of conflict mitigation. The protocol will be presented at the BCI workshop in February for wider discussion and adoption across southern Kenya.

By David Western
 
Wildlife numbers in Amboseli continue their recovery from the 2009 drought. The influx of zebra and wildebeest into the Amboseli basin in October doubled the numbers counted in August. This is good news for Amboseli and, along with Maaasai Mara, has restored the national park to the top league of wildlife viewing in Kenya. I have not seen such spectacular concentrations of zebra, wildebeest and gazelle around the swamps since the 1990s.
 
The increase reflect a continuing recovery of herbivores from the 2009 drought in which wildebeest numbers plunged by over 90 percent, zebra by two thirds and buffalo by slightly more. Zebra numbers have recovered their pre-drought levels of 16,000 but are still below their peak numbers in the 1990s. Wildebeest figures have risen to two thirds of their pre-drought levels and buffalo are approaching the same recovery.
 
The big influx into Amboseli in October also reflects the severity of conditions across the larger ecosystem, as reported in the July posting. With livestock at peak numbers and the long rains falling short in the Chyulus and Mbirikani, Kuku and Rombo Group Ranches to the West, pasture is at its lowest ebb since the 2009 drought. The upshot is a large influx of wildebeest, zebra and livestock that would otherwise retreat to the dry season pastures along the base of the Chyulu Hills. Since July, I have counted the largest numbers of cattle, sheep and goat in Amboseli in many years.
 
The recovery of wildlife and livestock herds poses big problems that need urgent attention to avoid a repeat of the 2009 drought. The pressure on the pasture is showing up in the monthly grassland plots we monitor across the ecosystem. Grazing pressure has severely depleted the late dry season reserves. Pasture recovery is falling sharply in the rains. The body condition and milk yields of cattle has dropped steeply, making life harder for pastoralists. Herders are pushing their animals deep into the Chyulu Hills, Tsavo West and Amboseli National Parks in search of grazing, causing a growing conflict with Kenya Wildlife Service rangers. Elephants running short of late season forage in the park are spreading out of the park and running up conflict with herders and farmers. The intense grazing and browsing pressure in Amboseli National Park is continuing to deplete woody vegetation and biodiversity. A renewed push to build a cement factory between Amboseli and Mbirikani/Chyulu Hills poses a severe threat to the migratory route connecting the two pivotal portions of the ecosystem.