By Sakimba Kimiti

Introduction                                                                                                                      
The severe drought of early 2022 to February 2023 in the Amboseli ecosystem took a heavy toll on the herds and livelihoods of herders. The large number of livestock deaths and the heavy expenses incurred in managing herds during the drought highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive assessment of the viability of livestock production in the region. Despite the growing economic losses, herders, government and non-government agencies have had challenges in evaluating the losses, making it difficult to make informed decisions for improved livestock management and development.

The lack of accurate information has led to an undervaluation of traditional livestock production systems. The undervaluation has, in turn, resulted in poor government and development agency support for the pastoral area. The recurrent widespread droughts and heavy livestock mortality calls for a thorough valuation of the economic costs of keeping animals alive, and the economic value and cultural significance of doing so.
Detailed information on the economic costs of drought will help herders, government and development agencies take stock of the impact and causes of drought and mitigating measures that can be taken. The information also raises questions about whether the economic costs of drought are justifiable in the face of rangelands subdivision, degradation and climate change.

To gain insights into the impact of the drought, I conducted small-scale surveys across the Amboseli ecosystem in late October 2023, shortly before the start of the short rains.
The information collected included expenses incurred in purchasing hay, maize stalks, livestock supplements, including maizemeal (unga), livestock drugs, vaccines, acaricides, transporting livestock, leasing grazing land, and other drought-related costs. The data were broken down by month to track the time course of livestock deaths, sales, costs and value of the remaining herd.

Traditional livestock practices involving free-ranging livestock movements across shared grass and water sources are essential to the cultural fabric of pastoralists in the Amboseli ecosystem, and in sustaining wildlife herds.
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Ignoring the collective use and management of pastures undervalues the cultural significance of livestock, leading to a lack of policy support for maintaining the productivity and resilience of pastoral land, to small-scale subdivision, and pasture degradation. I have, for this reason included cultural values in my survey. 

Download the full report below.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki
 
Introduction
​The short rains, perhaps heralding a wet El Niño, started in the Amboseli area in early November. By the time David Western and David Maitumo did an aerial count on 15th November the grass had greened up everywhere except Osilalei directly to the north.
Lake Amboseli had begun to flood, and much of the Amboseli Basin was fully saturated with rainwater. The wildebeest and zebra herds had moved out on migration and elephant numbers dropped from 430 in October to 250. On the other hand, cattle numbers remained high, with 2,000 in the park despite the good rains. Several herds had moved into prime wildlife viewing areas in the center of the park.
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Conditions in the Amboseli ecosystem
The poor short rains of April and May did break the drought cycle which began in early 2022 sufficient to see a recovery of livestock and wildlife. Persistent heavy grazing soon pushed pasture condition back into the red zone (Figure 1). The current good rains starting in November and projected to continue into 2024 will provide sufficient pasture for wildlife and livestock herds to begin to recover from the drought.

Download the complete Amboseli ecosystem outlook and status report for November 2023, below.

Status of the Amboseli ecosystem
By David Western*, Victor N. Mose**, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki
 
Situation report
Introduction
The severe drought which set in early in 2022 and continued through early 2023 continued through to the long rains of April and May. The poor long rains and continued heavy grazing pressure saw a poor recovery of pastures. By August 2023 satellite imagery of Kajiado County showed low pasture availability across the Amboseli ecosystem. The only remaining areas with substantial grazing are in the Amboseli, and Kimana swamps.   

Download full report below.

By David Western and Victor N. Mose
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Preamble
​The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has conducted regular aerial counts of the Amboseli ecosystem and eastern Kajiado since 1973. The counts give a 50-year record of wildlife and livestock numbers in response to droughts and human settlement (Western and Mose 2021). ACP has commissioned the Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS) to conduct similar counts since 2011. The two sets of counts have given very similar results over the period of overlap. ACP commissioned DRSRS to conduct an aerial count of eastern Kajiado to assess the impact of the 2022-2023 drought by comparing current figures with the pre-drought count of February 2022. DRSRS used ACP counting protocols (Jolly 1969, Western 1976) to ensure compatibility with earlier counts.
 
We had intended the count to be flown in April-May at the height of the long rains to ensure maximum visibility of animals against the greenery. A three-month delay in aircraft availability put the count off until August 29th to September 1st. The delay resulted in the count being conducted during a severe dry spell when the visibility of animals from the air falls relative to wet seasons. As a result we expect the counts to underestimate the numbers of smaller species in more scattered herds and animals blending into the background.
 
In the event the delay was fortuitous, despite the poorer counting conditions. During the long rains in April-May an east-west rainfall gradient saw pastures green up well to the west and south of Amboseli and recovery little to the east on Kuku and Rombo. The scattered rains drew large numbers of wildebeest and zebra across the border into Tanzania beyond the counting area. Had the count been conducted in May, few wildebeest would  have been counted in the Amboseli ecosystem. The low numbers would have greatly exaggerated drought losses, By the end of August, a survey flight we conducted showed most but not all wildebeest and zebra to have returned to Amboseli.

By David Western
 
During the Maasai cultural festival week of August 21st President Ruto announced that Amboseli National Park would be handed back to the management of the Kajiado County. The announcement was greeted with jubilation by Maasai leaders. The governor of Kajiado, Joseph Ole Lenku, welcomed the presidential directive, saying it corrected the historical injustice of Amboseli Game Reserve being seized from the county by presidential decree in 1974. Conservationist were caught unaware and many strongly oppose the declaration as a regressive move threatening the future of Amboseli’s world famous elephants and wildlife.

Having played a central role in the conservation of Amboseli since the 1960s, I have been asked from many quarters to comment on the handing back of Amboseli National Park to the Kajiado County and Maasai community. Let me start at the beginning to show why I support the move, and the conditions needed to ensure the future of Amboseli not only as a national park, but an ecosystem ten times the size of the park.
 
The first colonial administrators of the East African Protectorate fully recognized the pastoral communities in northern and southern Kenya as having conserved the richest wildlife lands on earth. Following the prohibition on sport hunting in both areas, a 10,696 square mile Southern Reserve was set aside in 1906 to protect wildlife in what would later become Kajiado District. Wildlife continued to thrive in the Southern Reserve under traditional Maasai land and husbandry management. Concerned over destruction of wildlife by colonial farmers and ranchers, the administration carved out Nairobi National Park from Maasailand in 1946, followed shortly after by Tsavo, Aberdare and Mt Kenya National Parks.
 
Efforts by the newly established autonomous Kenya National Parks authority to create national parks in Amboseli and Maasai Mara, the two richest wildlife areas in southern Kenya, were thwarted by Maasai resistance. Instead, a 1,269 square mile Amboseli National Reserve was established around Amboseli in 1948, administered by the Kenya National Park Trustees on behalf of the Kajiado County Council. In 1961 the national reserve was handed over to the Kajiado County Council to manage as the Amboseli Game Reserve. The Kajiado Council set aside a 30 square mile livestock free area around the Ol Tukai swamps to protect wildlife and foster tourism.
 
When I began my research in Amboseli in 1967, the warden Daniel Sindiyo, a Maasai himself, was seconded from the Game Department to administer the game reserve on behalf of the Kajiado County Council. We both
recognized the unique role the Maasai had played in conserving the wealth of wildlife in Amboseli and across southern Kenya. My research showed the pastoral way of life and the parallel seasonal migrations of livestock and wildlife across the 4,000 square kilometer ecosystem explained the wealth of Amboseli’s wildlife and its coexistence with the Maasai community.
 
By then pressures were mounting to create a national park around the Amboseli swamps, a move which would alienate the Maasai, deprive them of late season grazing and sever the wildlife migrations. We proposed instead an Amboseli Maasai Park which would ensure local participation in the benefits of wildlife and protect the integrity of the ecosystem.
 
Despite initially being accepted by the Kajiado County Council, the Maasai Park was ultimately rejected due to opposition politicians fueling suspicions of a government takeover. The Game Department pulled out and the county failed to invest in the conservation and management of Amboseli, leading to a rundown reserve, mounting conservation concerns and, in July 1974, President Jomo Kenyatta declaring Amboseli a National Park.
 
The Maasai considered the declaration illegal and showed their anger by spearing scores of elephants, lions and other wildlife. A compromise was reached after government was persuaded to cede the land and lodge revenues at Ol Tukai to the Kajiado County, pay the Maasai community a fee for supporting the wildlife migrations, and agreeing to future lodges being on community land to prevent overcrowding the park and earning the community direct tourism revenues.
 
Community-based conservation and an ecosystem approach to conserving wildlife was pioneered in Amboseli and adopted as national policy in 1977. In 2004 community leaders convened a meeting of conservation organizations, the Kenya Wildlife Service and county representatives to develop a ten-year ecosystem management plan. The plan, followed by an enlarged 2020-2030 plan, has seen wildlife numbers increase due to the deployment of some seven hundred community scouts, tourism enterprises, conservancies and the oversight of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust constituted by the landowners and partners.
 
Having played a strong role in Amboseli’s community and ecosystem approach to wildlife conservation and promoted similar approaches nationally and internationally, I fully support the return of Amboseli to its traditional custodians. It does correct a historical injustice and vested wildlife in the community which has conserved it down the ages.
 
I do, however, caution the need to correct the injustice of Amboseli’s seizure through legal channels, not by presidential decree--as important as this is in setting the ball rolling. I took a similar position when President Kibaki decreed Amboseli be handed back to the Kajiado County Council in 2005. The decree led to an outcry, not only among conservationists, but also a Suswa Declaration by Maasai leaders rejecting the illegal declaration as an effort to buy Maasai votes. The Kibaki decree was halted by a court injunction, leading to angry tussles between government and Maasai leaders ever since. 
 
The gazetting and degazetting of a national park must be done through the legal provisions of the Wildlife Act and the approval by the National Assembly. Amboseli could otherwise be taken back from the Maasai by a future presidential decree. The return to the Maasai should also be seen as the correction of an historical injustice, not an election gift. Other counties will otherwise press for a similar gift of national parks, and already are.
 
The handing back of Amboseli to the Maasai comes at a critical juncture. Frustrations are mounting among community members over rising conflict with wildlife and paltry revenues from the park. The frustrations, lack of returns from wildlife and the ongoing subdivision of the surrounding group ranches pose a grave threat to the future of the national park, migrations and ecosystem.
 
Under Maasai custodianship, Amboseli’s wildlife must find an enduring place in their future as it has in the past. The Kajiado County must also show it can manage Amboseli to the standards KWS has set. The county inherits a well-run park with regulations which have curbed the uncontrolled tourism crush harrying predators in many national reserves and sullying Kenya’s reputation as a premier wildlife destination.
 
The resumption of Amboseli management by the Kajiado County also offers an opportunity to secure the future of the ecosystem in the face of subdivision. With the County Assembly prepared to share a significant portion of the park revenues with the community, the payment for their ecological services could secure the ecosystem needed for wildlife migrations and the future of livestock herders. Conservation trust funds being set up by government and conservation organizations, along with payments for carbon and biodiversity credits and nature enterprises, could provide additional income to the Maasai community to keep their rangelands open.
 
With these caveats and the potential to secure the future of the entire ecosystem, I see a promising future for Amboseli National Park vested in the Maasai community.  The government must and has given assurances that it will take bold steps to reform existing punitive wildlife policies to ensure our national parks are embedded within the ecosystems on which they depend, and embrace community engagement.  The Parks Beyond Parks movement which I launched at KWS in 1997 has seen conservancies flourish and cover more land than all national parks and reserves combined. The combination of such community conservation efforts and national parks is a winning combination which augers well for conserving Kenya’s wealth of wildlife.

Introduction
Rangeland ecosystems face enormous biophysical, sociocultural and economic changes at an unprecedented rate. Frequent droughts are disrupting the lives of herders, leaving them destitute and unable to cope with the changing times. The Amboseli ecosystem illustrates the many changes affecting herders and their livelihoods. The hardships call for monitoring and identifying the losses, coping mechanisms and best practices in order to build drought resilience.

We have conducted a comprehensive survey to detail the perceived causes, impacts, and responses to the 2022-2023 drought relative to earlier droughts. A well-informed management strategy depends on a clear understanding of the pastoral production systems and coping strategies. The survey by the Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) was conducted by Sakimba Kimiti and the ACC Resource Assessors (RAs) across the Amboseli ecosystem. The survey was designed to assess livestock losses, social disruption, management strategies, best practices, and pointers to the future sustainability of open rangelands.

The survey findings give valuable pointers to stakeholders in Amboseli to better ecosystem planning and management, and ways to improve drought resilience in the pastoral lands.
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Download full report included in the second issue of the Amboseli Conservation Bulletin below

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samson Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki

Introduction

This ACP report is one of our regular series tracking the conditions of the rangelands, pastoral economy and wildlife in Amboseli. We also give pasture conditions across the southern region from Narok to Taita-Taveta which may dictate cattle movements across the region this dry season. 
Our report shows that pasture and livestock conditions have not recovered sufficiently with the long rains to avert harsh conditions until the short rains late in the year. 

Download full report below.

​By David Western and Victor Mose
 
Two seemingly opposing views speak to the ecological role of elephants in Africa. One holds that elephants destroy woodlands and reduce biodiversity, the other that elephants play a keystone role in creating the richness of Africa’s forests and savannas. Each view has swayed wildlife conservation policies and practices one way or another. In southern Africa elephants have regularly been culled in parks to protect woodlands and prevent a loss of biodiversity. In East Africa a hands-off policy allows ecological changes to play out with little management, regardless of the biodiversity outcome.

Evidence from over two hundred studies across Africa shows high densities of elephants constricted to parks do destroy woodlands, threaten species such as the endangered black rhino and can greatly reduce biodiversity, the very objective of modern conservation policies. Yet other studies show just how important elephants are in seed dispersal and habitat diversification in African tropical forests and savannas.
 
Our Amboseli studies uphold both views. On the one hand we show elephants compressed into Amboseli National Park have destroyed the fever tree woodland and greatly reduced plant and animal diversity and resilience to droughts. On the other, our survey of the Congo Basin shows elephants to be an architect of the tropical forests. The forests are richest in wildlife where elephants move freely and fall silent when elephants are poached out.

If both views are correct, are there conditions which favor the ecologically constructive rather than damaging role of elephants?  
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In our paper titled, Cascading effects of elephant-human interactions and the role of space and mobility in sustaining biodiversity published in the journal Ecosphere in May 2023, we come to a surprising conclusion: creating separate places for elephants and people is seldom the answer. People and elephants play complementary roles in creating and sustaining the diversity of African forests and savannas. 

​Disentangling and reconstructing the ecological roles of elephants and people is like pulling apart the threads of a tapestry to better see its harmony. Most elephant studies have been conducted in parks long after they were created, missing altogether the entangled and coevolved roles people and elephants have played in shaping Africa’s landscapes over millennia before the advent of colonialism and exponential human growth of the last century
 
Our half century of study in Amboseli gave us a unique insight into how the ecological forces of people and elephants in Amboseli shaped the savannas from a time when Maasai pastoralists and wildlife interacted freely across the landscape, to the creation of a national park in the 1970s. Tracking the changes through the ensuing decades has given us a unique window onto how the breakdown in elephant movements due to  poaching and compression into the national park has reduced biological diversity. Followed yet longer, we tracked the subsequent recovery of elephant numbers and movements in response to local communities taking up their own conservation initiatives.
 
What we found is that elephants compressed into the national park by poaching turned woodlands to grassland and shrublands, created short grazing lawns in the swamps, and sharply reduced plant and herbivore diversity. This scenario replays the story of elephants in protected areas across Africa. And yet, where elephants abandoned their range beyond the park, the invasion of dense bushlands also resulted in a loss of biodiversity which echoes the story of the forests falling silent.

These two scenarios came as no surprise to us. The big surprise came in finding habitat diversity and plant species to peak at the park boundary where elephants and people overlapped and move around each other. Their interaction set up a creative tension in which elephants removed trees and created grassy patches, and livestock suppressed grazing and created woodland regrowth, a finding we confirmed with a variety of controlled experiments.

Though not directed at the ecological outcome of human-wildlife interactions, other studies have found elephants and people to coexist at relatively low population levels. Similar conclusions are found in other studies showing how human-elephant coevolution has shaped the ecological, behavioral and cultural adaptations in elephants and people.
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The Amboseli study underlines how important space and mobility is in expressing the keystone role of elephants and people coexisting at landscape scale. Space and mobility not only alleviate the ecological disruption of compressed populations but also minimizes the need for population management.
 
We recognize that space and mobility are dwindling fast. Poaching, settlements, farms and fenced ranches have already reduced elephants to a sixth of their potential range in Africa. How then, can we possibly win back more space for elephants, restore their ecological role and minimize conflict with people?
 
Winning space calls for reversing a century of policies creating separate places for people and wildlife. We must reach beyond parks and to find sufficient space sustain viable elephant populations and biodiversity--on conditions that benefit rather than burden landowners. Can this be done? Yes. Examples include cross-border linkages between Kruger National Park in South Africa and Mozambique, the greater Amboseli ecosystem lying spanning the Kenya-Tanzania border, and the Yellowstone-to-Yukon landscape across the U.S. border creating space for grizzlies, wolves and bison. These new conservation landscapes are recreating the ecological role of large herbivores and carnivores in our human-dominated world.
 

We are pleased to share our paper just released in Ecosphere. Our study tracks six decades of change in the number and distribution of elephants to document their ecological impact in response to poaching, the creation of a national park and human settlement across the Amboseli ecosystem.

​We show that elephants and people, the two keystone species in the savannas, create habitat and species diversity if free to move across the landscape.  The study shows the importance of space, mobility and community engagement in ensuring the vital ecological role elephants play, and in minimizing the need for population and habitat management.

Download the paper below.

Dr. David Western, known as Jonah, has spent 55 years conserving the African savannas. At the Dickinson Family Education Conservatory on April 27th at 6:00 pm, he will discuss how changing views of nature are transforming conservation in our human-dominated age. Attendees can expect valuable insights from this renowned expert.
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For more information click here.