By David Western, David Maitumo, Victor N. Mose, Julius Muriuki and Glen P. Mitema
 
Introduction
Amboseli became world renowned in the 1950s as the setting for Where No Vulture’s Fly, a film of the struggles to create Kenya’s national parks.  Famous long-horn rhinos, large-tusked elephants, teeming herds of wildlife and elegant yellow fever trees set against the background of Kilimanjaro, Amboseli drew visitors from around the world. Then, in the mid-1950s, the fever trees began dying. Conservationists blamed the Maasai for overgrazing Amboseli and pushed government to create a national park.  

The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) began an ecological study of Amboseli in 1967, focusing on wildlife migrations and the dying woodlands. The program mapped twenty-eight distinctive vegetation zones as a baseline for monitoring future changes. The changes were mapped every five years or so in the ensuring six decades. The program set up permanent plots in the mid-1970s to monitor pasture conditions and seasonal changes in species composition of trees, shrubs, herbs and grasses. Details of vegetation mapping and monitoring methods can be found in technical reports published by the ACP team.

The study on the woodland die-off exonerated the Maasai as the cause and initially implicated a rising water table4. Later long-term exclosure experiments showed elephants alone to be the cause.  The studies showed the woodlands changes to be symptomatic of far larger ecological changes underway in Amboseli.
 
The studies showed plant diversity and productivity have declined, biomass turning over faster, and ecological resilience declining. Human activity has now overtaken rainfall in driving the seasonal rhythms and decadal fluctuations in plants, livestock and wildlife.  

The aim of the ACP bulletins is to produce timely information on the current status and ecological changes in Amboseli for use in planning and management of the Amboseli ecosystem and national park. This bulletin updates earlier publications on the long-term changes in vegetation and the underlying causes. We give vegetation trends and present results in graphic form for ease of viewing. We conclude with comment on the causes of change and the implications for the management of Amboseli.

Download the Amboseli vegetation bulletin below.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti
 
Preamble
The outlook for livestock and wildlife in the short dry season normally stretching from January to the long rains in March-April is exceptionally good. The prolonged short rains from October through December 2024 were followed by heavy unseasonal rains in January. The heavy and extended rains produced a bumper crop of grasses which will see animals through the long rains in good body condition. Cattle milk yields have also rebounded with the extended rains.

Grazing pressure on the pastures is also unusually low for the short dry season due to wildlife and livestock moving out of the Amboseli dry season area.

Livestock market prices are at an all-time high due to the good body condition of livestock, a reduction in herds due to the 2022-2023 drought, and a high national demand for beef.

Families with small farms are also benefiting from the extended rains to intensify and expand crop production.
The outlook for wildlife is also excellent. The sustained body condition of zebra and wildebeest during the 2024 long-dry season should see heavy foaling and calving during the long rains. The extended migration of the wildlife through the short rains into the dry season has reduced predation levels and will result in a higher survival of newborns during the long rains.

On the downside, the extended wildlife migrations and resident herds of livestock due to permanent settlement around Amboseli has seen a sharp increase of predator attacks on cattle, sheep and goats around the outskirts of the national park.

Download the full outlook report below.

David Western, Immaculate Ombongi and Victor N. Mose
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Abstract
Our study traces the transition from traditional livestock practices based on seasonal migrations to permanent settlements over the last half century. The number of settlements has grown seven-fold with the rising human population. The changing location, size, style and clustering of settlements and permanent houses reflects the changing lives and lifestyles of pastoralists in Amboseli choosing smaller family units close to social amenities.
ACP has documented the ecological degradation caused by subdivision in the Kaputei Section and permanent settlement in the Amboseli ecosystem. The heavy permanent grazing has caused of loss of pastures, erosion and extreme flooding in Amboseli National Park.
A review of the Olgulului-Ololorashi subdivision plans by National Environment Management Authority raised concerns over land loss and degradation caused by subdivision and sedentarization. Although the plans align with the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan 2020-2024, they should be incorporated into the Kajiado County Spatial Plan to ensure enforcement and compliance with the Presidential Decree and Governor of Kajiado’s directive halt to land sales pending land conservation plans.​

Download full the bulletin below.

David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti
Preamble
​The heavy prolonged El Niño rains boosted pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem to peak growth in May, with the exception of slightly weaker rains on Mbirikani. The rich pastures fully restored the loss of body condition livestock and wildlife suffered in the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields also recovered from the year-long delay caused by the drought. Market prices for livestock hit an all-time high due to cattle shortages, rising national beef demand, pastoralists rebuilding their herds, and inflation.

Download the full outlook report below.

 By Victor N. Mose and David Western
 
Introduction
The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has conducted regular aerial sample counts of Amboseli and eastern Kajiado continuously since 1973. Details of the counting method and previous counts can be found in published papers (Mose & Western, 2015; Western & Mose, 2021) and on the ACP website.
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In May 2024 African Conservation Centre (ACC) and ACP, funded by the European Union-MOSAIC project and The Liz Claiborne & Art Ortenberg Foundation (LCAOF), commissioned the Department of Regional Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS) and Flight Training Centre (FTC) to take stock of the recovery in wildlife and livestock in the aftermath of the 2022-2023 drought. The count was timed after the birthing seasons of wildebeest and cattle were delayed a year by the drought. The rain season count was flown across the 7,800 km² of Eastern Kajiado between May 21st and May 25th when the herds were maximally spread on migration and easily visible against the green vegetation.

Download full report below.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine and Sunte Kimiti

Preamble
The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP)  continued to monitor the conditions of  the rangelands, livestock and wildlife in the aftermath of the 2022-2023 drought and through the El Nino rains extending from October through May 2024. The following report gives a summary of the trends and an outlook assessment for the coming dry season.  

​The outlook after the long rains

The exceptionally heavy and prolonged El Niño rains were fortuitous and timely in boosting the slow post-drought recovery of pastures, the body condition of wildlife and livestock, and milk production. The outlook through the coming dry season is favorable for further recovery due to the low grazing pressure on the pastures. The boost to livestock and wildlife recovery should be taken as an opportunity to avoid the recurrent droughts, heavy wildlife and livestock mortalities, and huge economic losses incurred due to prolonged loss of milk yields and suppressed market prices for livestock sales.
The long-term ACP monitoring shows the causes of the growing intensity and frequency of droughts to be persistence grazing pressure due to permanent settlement and lack of pasture rotation (Western et al., 2015; Western & Mose, 2021). Lessons learned from the 2022-2023 drought indicate that most herders see the prevention of future livestock and economic losses to be better grazing management though pasture rotation, grass banking, supplementary feeding of animals at homesteads, and early warning systems allowing herders to sell livestock at favorable prices before drought losses (Kimiti et al., 2023).
The biggest threat to the future of the Amboseli pastoral lands and wildlife is subdivision leading to the loss of the open rangelands and the inability of herds to follow seasonal pastures. The Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan 2020-2030 (AEMP), as well as subdivision plans for Ololarashi-Ogulului and Mbirikani, fully recognize the threat of unregulated subdivision and the need to sustain the open rangelands for livestock and wildlife alike.
 
The Rangelands Division of the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) provides a means and opportunity to incorporate the lessons learned from recurrent droughts into the land use plans, rotational pasture plans, and better livestock production and marketing management systems.
ACP will work closely with AET and partners to provide the information and devise strategies to sustain the open rangelands through AEMP.  
 
References
Kimiti, S., Western, D., Mose, V. N., Kasaine, P., Kimiti, S., & Lekanaiya, S. (2023). Post-Drought Perceptions of Herders on Livestock Production in the Amboseli Ecosystem: Impacts, Coping Strategies, and Future Sustainability. www.amboseliconservation.org
Western, D., & Mose, V. N. (2021). The changing role of natural and human agencies shaping the ecology of an African savanna ecosystem. Ecosphere, 12(6), e03536.
Western, D., Mose, V. N., Worden, J., & Maitumo, D. (2015). Predicting extreme droughts in savannah Africa: A comparison of proxy and direct measures in detecting biomass fluctuations, trends and their causes. PLoS ONE, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136516
 

Download full PDF report below.

Victor Mose, Co-Director and Head of Biostatistics at the Amboseli Conservation Program-African Conservation Centre, attended the United Nations Science and Policy Business Forum special session at the sixth United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-6), held from February 26 to March 1, 2024, at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya. The assembly aimed to address the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism, scientific rigor, political commitment, and societal engagement.

​A notable discussion at the forum focused on disparities in data availability between the Global North and South, particularly regarding high resolution satellite data. During a roundtable session, Victor emphasized the need to support locally-led research in developing data products directly applicable to local issues. He highlighted the Amboseli Conservation Program's use of satellite data from Earth Observation to create visually interactive products guiding herders in monitoring environmental conditions, pasture levels, grazing availability, milk yields, livestock health, and market prices in Southern Kenya.
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The Amboseli program utilizes satellite products to forecast local droughts as happened in 2022-2023 and employs long-term monitoring and modelling of pasture conditions and rainfall to provide herders with environmental outlooks. This information prompted the county government of Kajiado to provide food and water for schoolchildren and encouraged herders to sell their livestock early, mitigating drought-related losses. Furthermore, the Amboseli program incorporates artificial intelligence to streamline data processing, reducing time and costs associated with producing these valuable insights.

By Victor N. Mose, David Western, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki

                                                                            Situation report
Introduction
The effects of the good short rains have been felt in the Amboseli area in moving the pasture barometer into the green zone. The green zone signals abundant forage in the coming dry season. Body condition of wildlife and livestock has also fully recovered from the 2022-2023 drought. Milk yields have yet to bounce back due to impregnation and calving being delayed by over nine months following the drought. Wildebeest calving has also been delayed by a year because of the poor condition of animals at the end of the drought. 

Download the Amboseli Outlook Report below.

By Sakimba Kimiti

Introduction                                                                                                                      
The severe drought of early 2022 to February 2023 in the Amboseli ecosystem took a heavy toll on the herds and livelihoods of herders. The large number of livestock deaths and the heavy expenses incurred in managing herds during the drought highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive assessment of the viability of livestock production in the region. Despite the growing economic losses, herders, government and non-government agencies have had challenges in evaluating the losses, making it difficult to make informed decisions for improved livestock management and development.

The lack of accurate information has led to an undervaluation of traditional livestock production systems. The undervaluation has, in turn, resulted in poor government and development agency support for the pastoral area. The recurrent widespread droughts and heavy livestock mortality calls for a thorough valuation of the economic costs of keeping animals alive, and the economic value and cultural significance of doing so.
Detailed information on the economic costs of drought will help herders, government and development agencies take stock of the impact and causes of drought and mitigating measures that can be taken. The information also raises questions about whether the economic costs of drought are justifiable in the face of rangelands subdivision, degradation and climate change.

To gain insights into the impact of the drought, I conducted small-scale surveys across the Amboseli ecosystem in late October 2023, shortly before the start of the short rains.
The information collected included expenses incurred in purchasing hay, maize stalks, livestock supplements, including maizemeal (unga), livestock drugs, vaccines, acaricides, transporting livestock, leasing grazing land, and other drought-related costs. The data were broken down by month to track the time course of livestock deaths, sales, costs and value of the remaining herd.

Traditional livestock practices involving free-ranging livestock movements across shared grass and water sources are essential to the cultural fabric of pastoralists in the Amboseli ecosystem, and in sustaining wildlife herds.
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Ignoring the collective use and management of pastures undervalues the cultural significance of livestock, leading to a lack of policy support for maintaining the productivity and resilience of pastoral land, to small-scale subdivision, and pasture degradation. I have, for this reason included cultural values in my survey. 

Download the full report below.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki
 
Introduction
​The short rains, perhaps heralding a wet El Niño, started in the Amboseli area in early November. By the time David Western and David Maitumo did an aerial count on 15th November the grass had greened up everywhere except Osilalei directly to the north.
Lake Amboseli had begun to flood, and much of the Amboseli Basin was fully saturated with rainwater. The wildebeest and zebra herds had moved out on migration and elephant numbers dropped from 430 in October to 250. On the other hand, cattle numbers remained high, with 2,000 in the park despite the good rains. Several herds had moved into prime wildlife viewing areas in the center of the park.
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Conditions in the Amboseli ecosystem
The poor short rains of April and May did break the drought cycle which began in early 2022 sufficient to see a recovery of livestock and wildlife. Persistent heavy grazing soon pushed pasture condition back into the red zone (Figure 1). The current good rains starting in November and projected to continue into 2024 will provide sufficient pasture for wildlife and livestock herds to begin to recover from the drought.

Download the complete Amboseli ecosystem outlook and status report for November 2023, below.