By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muruiki
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This report is an update on our drought outlook bulletin of December after brief and localized rains fell in recent weeks. We use our standard measures of the state of pastures, livestock and wildlife to capture the current conditions and the outlook for the remainder of the dry season.

We conclude that drought conditions will continue and intensify in Amboseli, across much of southern Kenya and into northern Tanzania in the coming weeks. With the few pockets of greenery in the Chyulus and slopes of Kilimanjaro nearly depleted, livestock conditions will decline sharply and supplementary feeding is likely to resume even as market prices for animals fall and hay and other feed prices rise. Wildlife deaths should remain low for the next few weeks, but calving could be set back months due to the emaciation condition of females during the drought.

​Sakimba Kimiti
Working with the Amboseli Conservation Program I have gained important skills in understanding the importance of regular monitoring of the various aspects of the rangelands critical to the survival of people, livestock, wildlife and the environment. I have learnt about and developed social and ecological tools for monitoring the health of the rangelands and impact on families.

More recently, I’ve learned how to report on the 2022 drought using graphics and pictorial images to reach the majority of the online community. The images are an efficient way to reach a wide audience and youths especially, but also decision and policy makers too. A one-stop platform using open-source and interactive tools boost up-take, decision-making and feedback.
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Stakeholders within rangelands have come to acknowledge that rangeland management is complex, influence as it is by physical, social, cultural and economic factors on a large scale operating over decades. A combination of scientific approaches and local knowledge helps us assess and monitor the health of the Amboseli ecosystem for people and wildlife. I am completing my PhD exams at present and, once done, will produce a fuller assessment of the drought from a community perspective.

By David Western, Victor  N. Mose and ACP team
 
We wish to give a brief update on the drought before the holiday break. We shall give a fuller account and outlook in the New Year.

Having understood from forecasts that the short rains were over when we posted our last report on 2nd December, Amboseli did get some expected scattered showers. Good rains fell on the Chyulus Hills and the foot slopes of Kilimanjaro around Endonet.
How will these welcomed and unexpected rains affect the outlook for livestock and wildlife in the coming three months or so before the long rains?

For livestock, the green flush in the Chyulus and slopes of Kilimanjaro has relieved the immediate pressure on herds moving there. Herders can cut back on the amount of supplementary feed for now, but not for long. The brief bursts of rain elsewhere have barely greened up pastures heavily degraded by the drought. Further, large herds of cattle have once again moved in from Matapatu to the west. The heavy concentrations are grazing down the grasses in the Chyulus and Endonet as fast as they grow.

Unless there are outlier rains in January, the drought will harden quickly and herders will have to feed the cattle hay and grain once more to get them through to the long rains. The Amboseli Ecosystem Trust and NGO partners met in early December to take stock of the outlook for livestock keepers. Reports from the field noted herders losing hope of saving many animals in the coming few months. With the school feeding program ending and children and families facing harsh times ahead, AET resolved to resume the program until the long rains. An appeal is being sent out to NGO partners.
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​The outlook for wildlife is somewhat better than livestock, given their far smaller herds, flexibility in tracking the green flushes, and ability to get by on sparser forage. Zebra and wildebeest have taken advantage of the green flush in the Chyulus and the scattered showers around Amboseli. Large numbers of cattle, wildebeest and zebra attracted by the green flushes left Amboseli. The exodus has temporarily relieved the pressure on the Amboseli swamps. On 13th December when David Western and David Maitumo did a count of the Amboseli Basin, they found few wildebeest and zebra and counted only 152 elephants, the lowest in years. They noted almost no new wildlife deaths.

​With few animals left in the park, the pastures in and around the swamps are bouncing back. By the time the wildlife herds return, the swamp grazing is likely to be sufficient to sustain the herds for some while, perhaps until the long rains. 

The 2022 drought has been punishing for wildlife and livestock. In our ACP monitoring program, we anticipated the drought early in the year and posted an extreme drought alert in May. We have since posted further updates on the ACP website.

Our reports were presented to the governor, Kajiado in August and to the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) and Southern Rangelands Coalition (SRC) at the end of September. We were asked to produce a full report once the outcome of the short rains became clear. 

The report calls attention to the growing impact of drought, the underlying causes and the changing perceptions and responses among herders. It calls for prompt action at local, county and national levels to prevent land fragmentation and degradation causing the extreme droughts affecting the rangelands.
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The full report can be downloaded below.

By David Western and Victor N. Mose
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Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) has been working closely with many partners over the past two years to forge conservation coalitions able to monitor Amboseli and southern Kenya landscapes. The aim of the coalitions is to keep the rangelands open and viable for wildlife and pastoral livestock. Covid-19 slowed the enthusiasm and momentum built up in 2020.

Like so many collaborative efforts, it often takes a crisis to spur action. Warnings of an extreme drought posted by ACP on its website in May prompted a rapid response by the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) and the Southern Rangeland Coalition (SRC). The responses included school feeding programs to avoid children’s education being further set back after two-years of Covid-19 disruption. AET and SRC then met in back-to-back meetings in Amboseli late October to take stock of the drought and prevent a recurrence of destructive droughts and floods pummeling pastoral communities and wildlife populations.

At both meetings ACP gave presentations on the build up to the intensified droughts and floods in Amboseli, and the ecological dislocations across southern Kenya. Both meetings called for information platforms to track and monitor the rangelands, issue early warning alerts, and communicate the information for AET and SRC to plan and manage the rangelands more effectively in the face of land use and climate changes.

The results of both the AET and SRC meetings can be downloaded below.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose and David Maitumo
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Following our last posting of 15th October, we are issuing an interim report on the impact of the drought on wildlife losses so far prior to a detailed report to be submitted to the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) and partners and to the Southern Rangelands Coalition (SRC) in late November. Reports of the AET and SRC meetings called in response to the drought are posted on our website. 

​The Naivasha Wildlife Research and Training Institute (WRTI) also prepared a preliminary report on the Impacts of the Current Drought on Wildlife in Kenya on 29th September. The report noted that 512 wildebeest, 381 zebra, 51 buffalo and 205 elephants in the principle protected areas had died of drought so far. The report acknowledged the deaths to be minimum estimates and projected a steeper loss as the drought deepened. Amboseli was cited as the worst hit park. WRTI also called for more systematic counts of wildlife deaths.
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The Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife called on the Conservation Alliance of Kenya on 4th November to submit a report on wildlife mortalities around the country, and to recommend immediate and longer-term steps to combat drought. Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) data contributed substantially to the report. A copy of the report presented to the Cabinet Secretary, Ms. Peninah Malonza, and Principal Secretary, Dr. Susan Koech, by the southern and central Kajiado conservation partners will be posted on the ACP website. 

​ ACP has regularly posted the results of wildlife and livestock aerial censuses across eastern Kajiado over many years. In 2009, anticipating a severe drought, we added carcass counts to our regular the ground counts, tracked the course of the drought and, in conjunction with KWS, convened a meeting to consider measures to avert human-wildlife conflict and ensure a post-drought recovery of the depleted wildebeest and zebra populations.
It is worth pointing out in that estimates of drought losses can’t be made simply by driving around the worst hit areas and counting carcasses. Estimating the number of deaths and drought recovery prospects calls for a systematic method of counting both the live and dead animals simultaneously. Here is why:

• Accurate estimates of animal deaths need to be done across the entire dry season range, not only in areas where dead animals are most visible. In the case of Amboseli, few carcasses are found where wildebeest and zebra are feeding. Most carcasses are found on open ground where herds bed down at night to avoid predators and fail to recover from cold stress in the morning and move onto their feeding grounds.
• Since it is not possible to count all carcasses reliably, there is need to use an intensive sampling system in which both live and dead animals can be counted and used to calculate numbers for the whole dry season range or park.
• Carcasses are difficult to detect in heavy vegetation cover and when eaten by predators. Accurate counts can be done by scanning and counting a small area intensively. 
• Most early drought deaths are of young animals which are quickly eaten by predators, resulting in an underestimate of the numbers which have died.
• Counts of dead animals alone are not sufficient to gauge the impact of a drought. The bigger the population of animals, the larger will be the number of deaths for a given mortality rate. A ten percent mortality rate in a population of 10,000 wildebeest will produce 1,000 carcasses compared to 100 in a population of 1,000. Clearly, the prospects of wildebeest surviving the drought and recovering is far better for large than small populations.
• Because the size of the population matters to how many carcasses are produced and the prospects of recovery from a drought, we need a good estimate of the numbers of each species before, during and after a drought. If numbers drop below a level too low to combat post-drought predation, recovery could be stalled, calling for restorative measures. If sufficient numbers survive to recover naturally, no action is needed or justified.

With these points in mind, ACP counts 80 plots randomly located in Amboseli National Park and across the dry season wildlife range (Figure 1).  Each plot is 300 meters in radius. All animals and livestock as well as carcasses are counted by David Maitumo using binoculars and a rangefinder. The random sample plots allow us to project the total population numbers and carcasses of each species.
 
Here are the results of the live numbers and carcasses for species:

​The carcass counts reflect the WRTI report of the large number of animals dying of drought in Amboseli. The figures are far higher than previous estimates because carcasses were counted intensively in small sample areas over the entire dry season range. The carcass counts in the case of wildebeest are underestimates due to the number of young animals dying early in the drought and being partially or completely consumed by predators. Allowing for such carcasses removed early in the drought, the mortality for wildebeest is likely around 15% and zebra about the same.

We have used the total areal counts of October 9th 2022, for elephants, buffaloes and hippo numbers. Estimated losses of elephants and buffalo are 5%. We observed no giraffe death in the park. Reedbuck numbers increased sharply in Amboseli in recent years with the expansion of the swamps have suffered a modest loss. The losses for Thomson’s and Grant’s gazelle, impalas and other small species are negligible. We have not given any figures for livestock mortality at this point. Sakimber Kamiti is collecting information directly from herders and will give estimates for cattle, sheep and goats when compiled.

As high and alarming as the number of carcasses is in Amboseli, and as distressing as the hundreds of carcasses is to tourists, we need to keep an eye on the number of live animals and rate of decline to assess the impact of drought and prospects for recovery. Here the results are more reassuring.
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The only species suffering substantial losses so far are zebra, wildebeest, buffaloes and elephants. Compared to the 2009 drought when over 95% of the wildebeest, 60% zebras, two third of the buffaloes and a quarter of the elephants died, the current drought is far less severe. We started the current drought with far larger populations of each species, current mortality rates are far lower, and the swamps are far more extensive than in 2009. In many places the swamps are still expanding and providing fresh forage.

​We shall be conducting further counts in the next two weeks and will produce a comprehensive drought analysis to the AET, KWS and partners, and the SRC, at the end of November.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samson Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muruiki.

jonahwestern@gmail.com | vnmose@gmail.com  | victor.mose@acc.or.ke

Extreme drought alert
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The Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) began posting early warnings of hard times ahead in March of this year, based on a count of livestock and wildlife in eastern Kajiado. Until then, despite poor short rains, unseasonal showers in January and February, and grazing rotation plans on the group ranches, there remained sufficient reserve to see resident livestock and wildlife herds well through the year. The March count presented a far more pessimistic outlook. Over 150,000 cattle had moved into the Amboseli region from across southern Kenya and northern Tanzania. The influx doubled the resident cattle population and used up the surplus grazing. The outlook quickly worsened. If the long rains in April and May were poor, Amboseli would face a severe long dry season. When it became evident that the long rains were faltering, ACP issued an extreme drought alert in May. The alert showed pasture condition worsening rapidly and approaching those of 2009 drought when three quarters of the cattle, two thirds of sheep and goats, over ninety five percent of the wildebeest and two thirds of the zebras died of starvation.  

In response to ACP’s extreme drought alert, the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) convened an emergency response of group ranch representatives and conservation partners. The upshot was a school food program funded by Big Life and others to ensure children were fed and able to continue classes.
The ACP report was also delivered to Kajiado County governor, Joseph Ole Lenku, who, at his re-inauguration in August, announced the drought as top priority for his new administration. The governor followed through with a meeting of 160 politicians, county and government agencies and conservation organizations to take stock of the drought and take mitigating steps. Victor Mose presented a summary of ACP’s data on the long-term trends in livestock and wildlife and the deteriorating rangeland conditions. He showed that the 2009 drought in Amboseli alone amounted to over Ksh 3 billion in livestock losses.  In response to the findings, the governor set up a task force to ensure such droughts would not recur.

​The import of the ACP report also became the center point of an AET/ACC/ACP convened workshop in Amboseli on 28th September. The meeting to discuss the construction of a resource center at Nongotiak resolved that a meeting should be held at the start of every dry season. The meetings will bring together researchers, resource assessors, grazing committees, area leaders and KWS to appraise all available information and plan appropriate action to sustain the health of the rangelands, livestock and wildlife.
 
An expanded version of the ACP report to the governor also became the focal point of a meeting convened by the Southern Rangeland Coalition over the following two days. The meeting brought together the Taita-Taveta, Amboseli, South Rift and Mara lands owners associations, county officers, KWS and conservation bodies. The meeting concluded that the ACP monitoring and communication protocols should form a common platform for collecting, collating and communicating information for range management. As with the Amboseli Nongotiak Center, each association is urged to set up a community resource center where meetings can be held to amalgamate information and define responses.
 
Fuller reports on both the Nongotiak and SRC meetings will be issued shortly.
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Current conditions

Conditions in Amboseli and across the southern rangelands have continued to decline sharply since the ACP’s May drought alert and follow-up report in August. 

​On a positive note, the livestock moving into Amboseli earlier in the year headed back to Tanzania, Matapatu, the Rift Valley and Narok as fodder ran out and the long rains created scattered growth across the region. By August many Amboseli herders had moved west following the retreating herds. By September most Amboseli residents had returned preferring to keep their animals close to home and feed them maize stalks, unga (maize flour) and hay to keep them alive. By late August through September, large herds of cattle and fewer sheep and goats were filing into Amboseli National Park for lack of grazing elsewhere. The inflow quickly used up the residual pastures and accelerated the movement of wildlife into the swamps used late season.  

​By September wildebeest calves and zebra colts were beginning to die of starvation, accelerated perhaps by disease and heavy parasite infestations. The early deaths were largely those of animals born this year, and most were picked clean by predators and vultures. By late September when David Western began a systematic count of dead and live animals, wildebeest deaths were around 10 percent of the population and zebra 6 to 7 percent. David Maitumo began a biweekly count two weeks late by which time the toll of wildebeest was 15 to 20 percent and zebra 10 percent. David will conduct a more accurate sample count of the entire Amboseli basin shortly.
 
The swamp sedges have been grazed so short that even the smaller species, including Thomson’s gazelle and warthog, have moved deep into the swamps to find grazing. The sparsity of forage in the national park has seen elephant numbers fall sharply as herds moved out in search of forage in the surrounding bushlands. Family herds have split up into small female and calf groups, sometimes only a mother and infant. The large buffalo herds have also split into small groups foraging widely on the sparse grazing lawns around and in the swamps. The large clusters of zebra and wildebeest found around the swamps late dry season are spaced out widely on the sparse pastures.
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The outlook
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The weather forecasts for southern Kenya predict no rain through late October. What is the outlook for wildlife and livestock in the event that rains don’t fall until mid-November, as they did in breaking the drought in 2009?
 
We can only offer a tentative projection based on a comparison of present conditions with the 2009 drought.
 
By early October of 2009 over 55 percent of the wildebeest and 40 percent of the zebra had died, compared to 20 percent of wildebeest and 10 percent of zebra by the same date in 2022. This suggests that the losses will be far less than in 2009. Another contributing difference is the far higher populations in Amboseli now than in 2009. In 2022 the drought began with roughly 10,000 wildebeest and zebra compared to 7,000 in 2009. Further, the swamps were far smaller and shrinking fast in October 2009. In 2022 they are twice as large and still spreading with fresh inflows into the Longinye and Enkongo Narok springheads. The differences from 2009 suggest several thousand wildebeest and zebra will survive to mid-November, compared to fewer than 200 wildebeest, and 1,500 zebras in 2009. We also anticipate that as in 2009, the grasses will begin to bounce back and provide enough fodder to see the remaining herds as the populations fall. We are seeing a certain amount of “surplus killing” though, meaning lions and hyenas killing several animals and barely eating any. Though accounting for a small percentage of the deaths so far, the rate could accelerate as the herds decline and become weaker.
 
The outlook for livestock is very different in 2022 from 2009 due to the responses of herders in feeding their herds at home. By October 2009 most cattle calves had died and over 50 percent of the herd had succumbed to drought. In early October 2022 the death rate among cattle was still relatively low according to most field reports. Most animals will survive to mid-November if herders are able to afford supplementary feeding in the face of rapidly rising prices.
 

The next steps
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ACP will continue to post regular bulletins and alerts and to engage KWS, community members around Amboseli and the Kajiado County government in the outlook and possible responses. 
 
As ACP pointed out at the Nongotiak and SRC meeting, the pivotal point in the drought outlook will fall in mid-November. If the short rains look unpromising by then, the following few months will see huge losses of wildlife and livestock in Amboseli. If substantial rains have fallen or look likely by mid-November, the outlook will improve and post-drought recovery measures can begin. We do point out though that the start of the rains is likely to see a surge of new livestock and wildlife deaths due to cold stress and bloat on the fresh forage before a recovery begins. It will also be a year or so before emaciated animals recover sufficient to give birth, meaning milk yields will take months to recover.
 
ACP will present the current situation and projected outlook for wildlife and livestock at the mid-November meetings of AET and SRC to determine what action can and should be taken.
 

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samson Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muruiki.

jonahwestern@gmail.com | vnmose@gmail.com  | victor.mose@acc.or.ke

The impact of the drought

The drought in Amboseli and across southern Kenya has intensified according to all Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) measures. The pasture available has fallen deeper into the red zone (Figure 1), milk yields have dried up, and livestock body condition is falling to the levels of the 2009 drought (Figure 2). The pressure gauge comparing the intensity of grazing for 2022 with the catastrophic drought of 2009 when well over half the livestock died is now as deep in the red zone (Figure 3).
Cattle deaths are rising sharply and sale prices are falling steeply. The average price of a steer has fallen from Ksh 65,000 in January to Ksh 25,000 in August, making families reluctant to sell. To keep their animals alive, herders are buying hay and feeding their animals maize meal. The price of hay has risen from Ksh 250 a bale to Ksh 350 in the past few months and will rise steeply as supplies run short. Maize meal is set to rise from Ksh 100 a 2kg package to Ksh 200 with the removal of subsidies. With schools due to open after the half-term, families are struggling to keep their animals alive, feed their children and send them to class. Many herders who left Amboseli with their cattle to find better forage in the southern rift and as far off as Narok and Ngorongoro in Tanzania are returning home because they need family and neighbors to split their herds and manage them more intensively, including cutting browse from trees and bushes. 

​With rains unlikely for several weeks, the drought will intensify further. Satellite images comparing the Enhanced Vegetation Index across southern Kenya and northern Tanzania for the same months as the 2009 drought show the state of pasture by August to be far worse (Figure 4). The dire conditions in Amboseli were not expected at the start of the year when conditions were far more favorable than 2009. 

The mass immigration of an estimated 150,000 cattle into the Amboseli region from as far away as Narok and Tanzania changed the outlook by using up the flush of pasture produced by unseasonal rains in January and February 2022. The failure of the long rains saw the immigrating herds move west in search of grazing, followed by over half the Amboseli herds. The movements back and forth across southern Kenya since January have been on a scale not seen by living herders (see www.amboseliconservation.org). 

The outlook in the coming months

The drought will worsen in the coming weeks as the remaining pastures are grazed down, the cost of supplementing cattle feed with hay and maize rises with commodity prices, and weakened animals die. Large numbers of cattle are already dying around many settlements. Unexpected at the beginning of the years was a heavy toll on wildlife. We anticipated after the ACP aerial count in February that there was going to be sufficient reserve grazing in the swamps to see the herds through to the long rains. This is no longer the case. 
The large influx of cattle early in the year quickly used up the surplus grazing. The resident Maasai have, as a result, had to rely heavily on the Amboseli swamps to save their herds. Over 10,000 cattle were using the swamps by July, hardening the outlook for wildlife. 
The swamps pastures are now so depleted that on 16th of August 2022, ACP counted only 175 of a total of 2,000 elephants known to use Amboseli, the lowest in decades. The herds are scattered widely outside the park, raising the risks of conflict with people. The zebra and wildebeest populations which have recovered fully from the 2009 drought and are the highest recorded in Amboseli in a half-century of ACP counts, are also facing severe losses. Large numbers of zebra are dying and grazing deep in the swamp to find grazing. Barring early rains, the coming weeks will take a heavy toll on livestock and wildlife herds.
The incoming Kajiado and Narok County Governments and the new National Government elected to office on August 9th must take emergency drought measures to relieve the distress. We estimated the loss of 100,000 cattle in the 2009 drought, together with the time to recovery, to have incurred Ksh 3 billion in economic losses to families in the Amboseli ecosystem. The losses in 2022 may not be as great but, coupled with the cost of feeding animals to get them through the drought, will be a severe burden on family income and health. The damage done by the recurring and intensifying droughts to the county and national governments must be urgently addressed and remedied, given the impact on the livestock industry, wildlife and tourism revenues. 

​The Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET), ACP and African Conservation Centre (ACC) will shortly be holding a partner’s meeting aimed at integrating data collection and dissemination to plan and manage the ecosystem more effectively through the Nongotiak Centre. The Southern Rangelands Coalition (SRC), hosted by AET, will follow-on with a two-day meeting to discuss the future of the open rangelands, livestock and wildlife in the face of land subdivision, fragmentation and degradation. 

Download PDF version below.
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By David Western and Victor N. Mose

Milk yields are dwindling, livestock prices are falling to rock bottom, and animals are in such poor condition that few herders can sell them at acceptable prices. This is the picture in Amboseli as the effects of drought are being felt across the country. Mothers are concerned about a lack of milk for their school-age children, and absent fathers are desperate to save their cattle which are out searching the remaining pastures far from their homesteads.

Data from the Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) on livestock prices, milk yields, and body condition scores show the rapidly declining trends. Gourds are empty, the body condition of the remaining lactating cows is far below average, and market prices for a heifer are fetching Kenya shillings 5,000 or less. The numbers of animals up for sale is now so large, many herds are unable to find any market at all.

Following the release of an ACP drought alert in May, stakeholders in the Amboseli ecosystem, led by the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET), convened in Kimana to guide the community on immediate drought mitigation measures and preparedness for extreme drought in the coming months. A separate report on the deliberations during the meeting will be published shortly.
Graphs of recent livestock market prices, milk yields, and body condition scores collected by the ACP locally-recruited monitoring team are presented below. 

The current average price for a mature bull has dropped to Ksh 41,000, a 21% decrease. Steers, heifers, and cow sale prices have dropped by 50% compared to the same time last year. Despite the drop in prices, herders report difficulty in finding any markets for the animals.

The graph tracking lactating cow body scores and milk yields at the homesteads shows conditions falling fast to the 2009 catastrophic drought levels. Herders at the Kimana meeting were told to brace for harsh times in the coming months and plan ahead.  ACP has modelled economic losses due to droughts and the gains made when herders sell off their livestock before extreme forage shortfalls. The results will be posted shortly. The early warning model guides herders on when to sell livestock based on forage conditions and market forces to avoid extreme economic losses. The information will be presented using simple open-source dashboards for ease of understanding by local herders.

Download full report below.
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Harsh times ahead for herders as the rains fail

By David Western and Victor N. Mose
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Herders face an extreme drought in Amboseli in the coming dry season, perhaps as bad as the 2009 drought when over half the cattle died, milk yields dried up and sale prices fell to rock bottom. The dire outlook is forecast by ACP’s monitoring and herder’s own assessments. The cause of the dire outlook is a combination of a mounting grazing pressure over the last few years, an influx of over 150,000 cattle in from Matapatu, Kaputei and Tanzania in January and February, and poor long rains in April and May.

The satellite data shown below compares the conditions before the large livestock die-off after the long rains in May of 2009 with May of 2022. All group ranches in the Amboseli region face dire drought in the coming months.

​Grazing pressure for April 2022 is at peak across the group ranches, hitting 100% in Kimana, Imbirikani, Olgulului and sections of Eselengei. The Chyulu Hills, usually a drought refuge, have already reached 98%. Despite the heavy rains of 2017 to 2021 being the wettest run of years in decades, the continuous grazing pressure since the beginning of the year due to the influx of cattle has reduced pasture levels close to those of the 2009 drought.
In response to the grave pasture conditions on the Amboseli group ranches, herders are driving their cattle to Matapatu / Mailua  and into northern Tanzania, areas where the May 2022 satellite image shows some pastures still remain. 

​In a further warning of the hard months ahead, livestock prices are already dropping to drought levels due to the excess numbers entering the market. The extreme drought warning calls for herders to sell excess animals as soon as they can before the prices fall further, and to buy in hay to feed their maintenance herd through the drought.
Unless excess stocks are removed soon, large numbers of livestock will die of starvation, further damaging the pastures and resulting in poor recovery even if the short rains are good.

​Download Extreme Drought Alert for Amboseli below.

​By David Western and Victor N. Mose
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We anticipated a severe dry season in June 2021 when the long rains were paltry across the Amboseli region and severe in northern and eastern Kenya. It was soon apparent from our ground monitoring that Amboseli faced severe grazing shortages in the eastern portion of the ecosystem. By January the extreme pasture shortages had spread well to the east towards the Chyulu Hills. Anticipating a severe drought in early 2022, the Amboseli Conservation Program commissioned the Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS), and the Flight Training Centre at Wilson Nairobi, to conduct an aerial count of the Amboseli ecosystem in January 2022. 

​By late December it was apparent that Amboseli had been invaded by a huge influx of cattle from Tanzania, Matapatu, the Rift Valley and other places to the west and south where the rains had failed. The influx quickly reduced the sparse forage around Amboseli and moved east towards the Chyulu Hills where the rains were moderately good. By mid-January cattle were emaciated, most especially those from Tanzania, and the weaker animals were dying. We planned our count to capture the extent of the invasion and issue a forecast of heavy anticipated livestock deaths and plunging market prices.
In what follows we report the findings on the extent of the cattle invasion, the numbers and distribution of livestock and wildlife in the first bulletin by the Amboseli Conservation Program. Based on the counts, other monitoring data and unseasonal rains in January and February 2022, we project the outlook for the next half year.
Download the first Amboseli Monitoring Outlook Bulletin below.