By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samson Lekanaiya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki

Introduction

This ACP report is one of our regular series tracking the conditions of the rangelands, pastoral economy and wildlife in Amboseli. We also give pasture conditions across the southern region from Narok to Taita-Taveta which may dictate cattle movements across the region this dry season. 
Our report shows that pasture and livestock conditions have not recovered sufficiently with the long rains to avert harsh conditions until the short rains late in the year. 

Download full report below.

​By David Western and Victor Mose
 
Two seemingly opposing views speak to the ecological role of elephants in Africa. One holds that elephants destroy woodlands and reduce biodiversity, the other that elephants play a keystone role in creating the richness of Africa’s forests and savannas. Each view has swayed wildlife conservation policies and practices one way or another. In southern Africa elephants have regularly been culled in parks to protect woodlands and prevent a loss of biodiversity. In East Africa a hands-off policy allows ecological changes to play out with little management, regardless of the biodiversity outcome.

Evidence from over two hundred studies across Africa shows high densities of elephants constricted to parks do destroy woodlands, threaten species such as the endangered black rhino and can greatly reduce biodiversity, the very objective of modern conservation policies. Yet other studies show just how important elephants are in seed dispersal and habitat diversification in African tropical forests and savannas.
 
Our Amboseli studies uphold both views. On the one hand we show elephants compressed into Amboseli National Park have destroyed the fever tree woodland and greatly reduced plant and animal diversity and resilience to droughts. On the other, our survey of the Congo Basin shows elephants to be an architect of the tropical forests. The forests are richest in wildlife where elephants move freely and fall silent when elephants are poached out.

If both views are correct, are there conditions which favor the ecologically constructive rather than damaging role of elephants?  
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In our paper titled, Cascading effects of elephant-human interactions and the role of space and mobility in sustaining biodiversity published in the journal Ecosphere in May 2023, we come to a surprising conclusion: creating separate places for elephants and people is seldom the answer. People and elephants play complementary roles in creating and sustaining the diversity of African forests and savannas. 

​Disentangling and reconstructing the ecological roles of elephants and people is like pulling apart the threads of a tapestry to better see its harmony. Most elephant studies have been conducted in parks long after they were created, missing altogether the entangled and coevolved roles people and elephants have played in shaping Africa’s landscapes over millennia before the advent of colonialism and exponential human growth of the last century
 
Our half century of study in Amboseli gave us a unique insight into how the ecological forces of people and elephants in Amboseli shaped the savannas from a time when Maasai pastoralists and wildlife interacted freely across the landscape, to the creation of a national park in the 1970s. Tracking the changes through the ensuing decades has given us a unique window onto how the breakdown in elephant movements due to  poaching and compression into the national park has reduced biological diversity. Followed yet longer, we tracked the subsequent recovery of elephant numbers and movements in response to local communities taking up their own conservation initiatives.
 
What we found is that elephants compressed into the national park by poaching turned woodlands to grassland and shrublands, created short grazing lawns in the swamps, and sharply reduced plant and herbivore diversity. This scenario replays the story of elephants in protected areas across Africa. And yet, where elephants abandoned their range beyond the park, the invasion of dense bushlands also resulted in a loss of biodiversity which echoes the story of the forests falling silent.

These two scenarios came as no surprise to us. The big surprise came in finding habitat diversity and plant species to peak at the park boundary where elephants and people overlapped and move around each other. Their interaction set up a creative tension in which elephants removed trees and created grassy patches, and livestock suppressed grazing and created woodland regrowth, a finding we confirmed with a variety of controlled experiments.

Though not directed at the ecological outcome of human-wildlife interactions, other studies have found elephants and people to coexist at relatively low population levels. Similar conclusions are found in other studies showing how human-elephant coevolution has shaped the ecological, behavioral and cultural adaptations in elephants and people.
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The Amboseli study underlines how important space and mobility is in expressing the keystone role of elephants and people coexisting at landscape scale. Space and mobility not only alleviate the ecological disruption of compressed populations but also minimizes the need for population management.
 
We recognize that space and mobility are dwindling fast. Poaching, settlements, farms and fenced ranches have already reduced elephants to a sixth of their potential range in Africa. How then, can we possibly win back more space for elephants, restore their ecological role and minimize conflict with people?
 
Winning space calls for reversing a century of policies creating separate places for people and wildlife. We must reach beyond parks and to find sufficient space sustain viable elephant populations and biodiversity--on conditions that benefit rather than burden landowners. Can this be done? Yes. Examples include cross-border linkages between Kruger National Park in South Africa and Mozambique, the greater Amboseli ecosystem lying spanning the Kenya-Tanzania border, and the Yellowstone-to-Yukon landscape across the U.S. border creating space for grizzlies, wolves and bison. These new conservation landscapes are recreating the ecological role of large herbivores and carnivores in our human-dominated world.
 

We are pleased to share our paper just released in Ecosphere. Our study tracks six decades of change in the number and distribution of elephants to document their ecological impact in response to poaching, the creation of a national park and human settlement across the Amboseli ecosystem.

​We show that elephants and people, the two keystone species in the savannas, create habitat and species diversity if free to move across the landscape.  The study shows the importance of space, mobility and community engagement in ensuring the vital ecological role elephants play, and in minimizing the need for population and habitat management.

Download the paper below.

Dr. David Western, known as Jonah, has spent 55 years conserving the African savannas. At the Dickinson Family Education Conservatory on April 27th at 6:00 pm, he will discuss how changing views of nature are transforming conservation in our human-dominated age. Attendees can expect valuable insights from this renowned expert.
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For more information click here.

ACP commissioned Sakimba Kimiti to conduct a questionnaire survey in collaboration with the resource assessors to gather herders’ views of the intensity of the 2022 drought and their strategic responses compared to the 2009 drought. The current drought is still ongoing and will be monitored until the rains begin, and beyond, to look into how herders manage the recovery phase.  The first edition of the Amboseli Conservation Bulletin for 2023 is intended to inform the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Southern Rangelands Coalition and Kajiado County about how herders are adapting to recurrent droughts and suggest successful strategies which can be scaled up to avoid future large-scale losses of livestock and rangeland degradation.

The first edition of the Amboseli Conservation Bulletin for 2023 is available for download below.

Herders and wildlife face an extended severe drought in Amboseli after poor short rains

David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muriuki
 
Situation report
 
Herders in the Amboseli ecosystem face an extended drought after the poor short rains in November brought a short respite. Most families moved their herds to Chyulu Hills and Ukambani to take advantage of the localized rains. Some herders moved as far as 150 kilometers to Mutha and areas north of Tsavo East National Park. The migrations saw a slight improvement in cattle body condition and market prices.

However, the large concentrations of animals from as far off as the Rift Valley and Narok quickly used up the localized pastures. Coupled with the cost of leasing grazing rights in Ukambani and watering their animals, most herders soon moved their cattle back to Amboseli to graze in the permanent swamps. In our February aerial count, we recorded 10,000 livestock in Amboseli National Park. Were it not for Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) granting herders access to swamp grazing under supervision, thousands of cattle would have died.

The situation for wildlife is somewhat better than livestock. The scattered short rains around Amboseli in November temporarily drew zebra, wildebeest and elephants out of the park. Coupled with the outward migration of livestock, the swamps sedges recovered sufficiently to improve wildlife body condition and prevent further deaths.  

Outlook in the coming weeks

We are resuming the red alert for the current drought after the brief improvement to amber in December. This means the red alert conditions will continue far longer than in 2009 drought when heavy livestock and wildlife deaths and good short rains in November produced a flush of good pasture which ended the drought.
Given the grave outlook for livestock, herders should sell whatever animals they can and focus on their prime animals to avoid starvation and see them through to the long rains. The school feeding programs supported by NGOs in the Amboseli area should be resumed and expanded to ensure children stay in school and relieve the hardship on their families.

The outlook for wildlife is less dire, given the slight recovery in swamp grazing and in body condition. The mortality of zebra and wildebeest will likely remain low, provided the long rains arrive late March or early April. If, however, the livestock influx grows and moves from the peripheral swamps to the central portions used by wildlife, the outlook for wildlife will rapidly worsen too. KWS should ensure livestock use only the peripheral swamps to spare the central areas for wildlife and minimize conflicts.

The prolonged heavy grazing and resulting heavily degraded pastures across the Amboseli ecosystem since sedentarization began in the 1990s has severely reduced grassland productivity. Periods of severe pasture shortage have increased (Figure 4) and livestock productivity has declined (Figure 2). The outlook will worsen with the subdivision unless provisions are made to keep large areas open for livestock and wildlife grazing.

We suggest that once the rains resume, the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust on behalf of the landowners, KWS and conservation organizations take stock of the lessons learned from the current drought, restore pasture health and avoid losses to livestock and wildlife.  

Download the full Amboseli Ecosystem Outlook Report below.

Many herders and crop farmers, based on my observations in Eselengei group ranch, have never experienced such a severe drought. To supplement the lack of grass, livestock are given commercial feeds and hay. A sack of flour meal costs between Ksh. 1600/= and Ksh. 3000/=, depending on quality. Following some rain, herds migrated to Magadi, Narok, Machakos, Kiboko, and our neighboring country, Tanzania; they are almost all returning to their permanent homesteads to feed the remaining livestock with commercial feeds.

Very few herds have lactating cows, and those that do, don’t sell their milk; instead, it is used for household purposes. Older calves are separated from their mothers as the drought bites on. The current livestock body condition ranges from 1-4 on a scale of 1-9, with 9 being the best. A mature animal cost around Ksh. 30,000, while sheep and goats’ cost Ksh. 4,000.
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Many children have not attended school because their parents rely on rainfall to cultivate subsistence crops. Those in school are the children of parents who rely on irrigation and formal employment. Herders in Eselengei estimate that they have lost 70% of their livestock.

The entire Amboseli ecosystem is experiencing a severe drought, which has resulted in the deaths of livestock and wildlife. As a result, pastoralists have been forced to migrate all over the region, some as far as Narok and the coastal lowlands.

Livestock are starving, prompting herders to look for areas where it has recently rained, such as the Chyulu Hills, Ukambani and Kibwezi. The cost of purchasing livestock feed and grass has been a financial burden for many people. Herders in Kimana who once had over 200 cows now have less than 80.
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The dairy production from cattle has also been severely impacted, with a lack of pastures causing a decline in the livestock's body condition. The market prices for livestock have decreased due to their condition and falling demand. The herders are struggling to pay for their children's education. Some parents have been forced to withdraw their children from school due to a lack of fees.

The current drought has resulted in livestock deaths and desperation among herders in Mbirikani. Irrigation water sources are rapidly depleting in areas such as the Chyulu hills. Overgrazing by large herds of cattle from the ranches of Matapato, Eselenkei, and Olgulului has depleted the available pastures in the Chyulu hills. These herds have now moved into Tsavo National Park and the Isinet swamp near Kimana Sanctuary, resulting in a high concentration of cattle in these two locations.
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The migration of wild animals, particularly elephants, to these areas has resulted in a conflict over limited resources between the animals, livestock, and humans. Crops in the Isinet, Kimana, and Kalesirua areas have been raided. Market prices for bulls range from Ksh. 30,000 to 50,000, and young calves and other cattle range from Ksh. 20,000 to 35,000, as a result of the influx of livestock. If no rain falls, prices are expected to fall further in February and worsen by March.

The pastoralists have had a difficult time. There hasn't been any rain in three years. Only light showers have fallen during the months when rain is traditionally expected. As a result, there are few or no grasses in all areas. Reports from the OOGR indicate that some herders have lost close to 75% of their livestock. Wildlife has not been spared either. Many zebras, gazelles, giraffes, wildebeests, and even elephants have died as a result of the drought.

Since vegetation has disappeared and almost all grasslands now remain bare grounds, herders are buying crushed cones locally known as pumba, in addition to hay, and cone plants from farms under irrigation to feed our livestock. With all these efforts livestock are still dying. A double loss!

Following the light rain showers, herders have taken their livestock to the Chyulu hills, Oltepesi, Enkii, Oloile, Lemong'o, Olng'arua Loosinet, and Ngoirienito. The livestock body condition scores remain below average.  Their prices continue to drop as children get back to school. The drought has also led to malnutrition in children as milk yields dry up.

By David Western, Victor N. Mose, David Maitumo, Immaculate Ombongi, Sakimba Kimiti, Winfridah Kemunto, Samuel Leikanaya, Paul Kasaine, Sunte Kimiti and Julius Muruiki
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This report is an update on our drought outlook bulletin of December after brief and localized rains fell in recent weeks. We use our standard measures of the state of pastures, livestock and wildlife to capture the current conditions and the outlook for the remainder of the dry season.

We conclude that drought conditions will continue and intensify in Amboseli, across much of southern Kenya and into northern Tanzania in the coming weeks. With the few pockets of greenery in the Chyulus and slopes of Kilimanjaro nearly depleted, livestock conditions will decline sharply and supplementary feeding is likely to resume even as market prices for animals fall and hay and other feed prices rise. Wildlife deaths should remain low for the next few weeks, but calving could be set back months due to the emaciation condition of females during the drought.

​Sakimba Kimiti
Working with the Amboseli Conservation Program I have gained important skills in understanding the importance of regular monitoring of the various aspects of the rangelands critical to the survival of people, livestock, wildlife and the environment. I have learnt about and developed social and ecological tools for monitoring the health of the rangelands and impact on families.

More recently, I’ve learned how to report on the 2022 drought using graphics and pictorial images to reach the majority of the online community. The images are an efficient way to reach a wide audience and youths especially, but also decision and policy makers too. A one-stop platform using open-source and interactive tools boost up-take, decision-making and feedback.
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Stakeholders within rangelands have come to acknowledge that rangeland management is complex, influence as it is by physical, social, cultural and economic factors on a large scale operating over decades. A combination of scientific approaches and local knowledge helps us assess and monitor the health of the Amboseli ecosystem for people and wildlife. I am completing my PhD exams at present and, once done, will produce a fuller assessment of the drought from a community perspective.

By David Western, Victor  N. Mose and ACP team
 
We wish to give a brief update on the drought before the holiday break. We shall give a fuller account and outlook in the New Year.

Having understood from forecasts that the short rains were over when we posted our last report on 2nd December, Amboseli did get some expected scattered showers. Good rains fell on the Chyulus Hills and the foot slopes of Kilimanjaro around Endonet.
How will these welcomed and unexpected rains affect the outlook for livestock and wildlife in the coming three months or so before the long rains?

For livestock, the green flush in the Chyulus and slopes of Kilimanjaro has relieved the immediate pressure on herds moving there. Herders can cut back on the amount of supplementary feed for now, but not for long. The brief bursts of rain elsewhere have barely greened up pastures heavily degraded by the drought. Further, large herds of cattle have once again moved in from Matapatu to the west. The heavy concentrations are grazing down the grasses in the Chyulus and Endonet as fast as they grow.

Unless there are outlier rains in January, the drought will harden quickly and herders will have to feed the cattle hay and grain once more to get them through to the long rains. The Amboseli Ecosystem Trust and NGO partners met in early December to take stock of the outlook for livestock keepers. Reports from the field noted herders losing hope of saving many animals in the coming few months. With the school feeding program ending and children and families facing harsh times ahead, AET resolved to resume the program until the long rains. An appeal is being sent out to NGO partners.
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​The outlook for wildlife is somewhat better than livestock, given their far smaller herds, flexibility in tracking the green flushes, and ability to get by on sparser forage. Zebra and wildebeest have taken advantage of the green flush in the Chyulus and the scattered showers around Amboseli. Large numbers of cattle, wildebeest and zebra attracted by the green flushes left Amboseli. The exodus has temporarily relieved the pressure on the Amboseli swamps. On 13th December when David Western and David Maitumo did a count of the Amboseli Basin, they found few wildebeest and zebra and counted only 152 elephants, the lowest in years. They noted almost no new wildlife deaths.

​With few animals left in the park, the pastures in and around the swamps are bouncing back. By the time the wildlife herds return, the swamp grazing is likely to be sufficient to sustain the herds for some while, perhaps until the long rains. 

The 2022 drought has been punishing for wildlife and livestock. In our ACP monitoring program, we anticipated the drought early in the year and posted an extreme drought alert in May. We have since posted further updates on the ACP website.

Our reports were presented to the governor, Kajiado in August and to the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust (AET) and Southern Rangelands Coalition (SRC) at the end of September. We were asked to produce a full report once the outcome of the short rains became clear. 

The report calls attention to the growing impact of drought, the underlying causes and the changing perceptions and responses among herders. It calls for prompt action at local, county and national levels to prevent land fragmentation and degradation causing the extreme droughts affecting the rangelands.
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The full report can be downloaded below.